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Spain's state meteorological agency (Aemet) has issued a special heat wave warning for the high and stifling temperatures that will be recorded between now and Thursday in the south and eastern half of the Spanish mainland and the Balearic Islands. Aemet estimates the probability of such an episode of high temperatures occurring at 70%.
After the passage of a weather depression during the last few hours that has given rise to unstable conditions in a large part of the interior of the mainland, the displacement of the African anticyclone at medium and high levels towards the country will give way to a situation of great atmospheric stability, according to Aemet.
This, combined with the high level of sunshine at this time of year, the absence of cloud cover and light or calm winds, will lead to an increase in temperatures which, from today (Tuesday) onwards, will be high in large areas of the southern half and east of the mainland, as well as in the Balearic Islands, which means a significant risk for people exposed to the heat.
The situation is expected to persist and intensify on Wednesday, which will be the most critical day of the episode, especially in the eastern half of the Iberian Peninsula. From Thursday onwards, a cooler Atlantic mass will begin to penetrate the northwest of the mainland, leading to a generalised drop in temperatures on Friday.
This Tuesday, temperatures are expected to rise in most of central and eastern parts of Spain, the Balearic Islands and the eastern Cantabrian coast, where this rise will be particularly marked. Maximum temperatures will be above 40C in a large part of the southern plateau, especially around the Tagus and Guadiana valleys, as well as around the Guadalquivir and Ebro valleys, the Genil basin and the central depression of Catalonia. Temperatures may even reach 42 degrees in the upper Guadalquivir in Jaén. In the Balearic Islands, temperatures will exceed 37-38C in inland areas of the islands, and will reach 40 degrees in inland areas of Mallorca. Temperatures will also be high in the east of the northern plateau and low areas of the Pyrenees, where temperatures may reach 38 degrees, as well as around the banks of the river Minho and the eastern Cantabrian Sea, where they may exceed 35 degrees, although in these areas the heat wave criteria will not be met.
On Wednesday, temperatures will continue to rise in Andalucía, the Ebro valley and more markedly in inland areas of the Mediterranean area, where westerly winds will intensify, while they will fall sharply in the eastern Cantabrian Sea and western Galicia. Maximum temperatures are expected to reach 40-42C in the valleys of the Guadalquivir and the Ebro, the Genil basin, the central depression of Catalonia, the Empordà, the interior of Majorca and a large part of the south-eastern interior of the peninsula, and temperatures may locally exceed 42 degrees in these areas.
On Thursday, the drop in temperatures that began the previous day in the extreme north of the Spanish mainland is expected to extend to a large part of the middle and upper Ebro, while they will rise in areas of the extreme south as a result of the onshore winds. In the rest of the country, temperatures are expected to remain unchanged. During the day, the highest temperatures are expected in the southeastern interior of the peninsula and the inland areas of Malaga province, where they are likely to exceed 42C. Temperatures above 40C will again be seen in large areas of the Guadalquivir and more occasionally in the valleys of the Tagus, Guadiana and Ebro rivers, as well as in the central depression of Catalonia and the inland area of Mallorca.
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