A hollow victory

Almost three months later, that much-anticipated "new era", in which Catalan separatists quietly occupy the opposition seats after fourteen years in power, still hasn't begun. In fact the region's pro-independence president Pere Aragonès is still in office, albeit in an acting capacity, and making demands of Pedro Sánchez: when the two met in Barcelona last week, Aragonès repeated his request for a Basque-style "single financing" model in which Catalonia controls all its own taxes.

That meeting also saw Sánchez hand control of Catalonia's basic income scheme from the national to the regional government - an important victory for separatists. In exchange for the latest concessions, the ERC (Aragonès' party) is expected to back Illa's bid to become the next Catalan president, at an investiture vote that must happen before August 26th. If the Socialist candidate fails to win enough support, Catalans will return to the polls in October.

Illa's precarious predicament mirrors that of Sánchez in the national parliament. It is owed to the fact that he didn't actually win very much in May: despite coming first, his party still needs the backing of pro-independence groups to form the next government. Separatists will use that leverage to push their cause at home, just as they have been doing (with great success) at the national level.

Because they now occupy kingmaker roles in Barcelona and Madrid, separatists are able to increase Catalan autonomy without even trying to secede. In fact one could argue that the current setup is preferable to existing as a republic, certainly in terms of economic stability: separatists are gaining greater control of their regional finances (thus bolstering the devolved powers they already possess) without having to renounce membership of the EU and eurozone, both of which would be extremely difficult to reclaim as an independent nation (Madrid, for one, would block Catalonia's reentry).

Even if Illa becomes the first Catalan president to oppose independence since 2010, he won't be able to ignore separatists' demands, lacking as he does the luxury of a majority. Instead, the uneasy supply-and-confidence arrangement that exists in Madrid would be replicated, with a few minor differences, in Barcelona. Far from being the start of a new era, that would represent the continuation of one that's already several years old. Illa won a hollow victory back in May.