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José M. de Areilza
Malaga
Friday, 8 November 2024, 17:45
Donald Trump's clear victory has dispelled all doubts about whether the United States would fall back into the national-populism that had been overcome during Joe Biden's term. Americans did not trust Kamala Harris, an improvised candidate and representative of the Democratic left, who nevertheless did everything possible in her brief attempt to stop Trump. If the elderly president had announced a year ago that he would not run and had facilitated a competitive primary, this week's election result could have been very different.
Trump will be the first president with criminal convictions and with several other accusations pending. It remains to be seen if he will resort to pardoning himself at some point. The New York tycoon returns to the White House with an undeniable popular mandate and very concrete plans. He is no longer unpredictable, although his grim and aggressive character and authoritarian tendencies are concerning. His supporters now urge him to curb immigration and deport many recent arrivals, make the country more isolated from the rest of the world, and no longer acting as a provider of global stability. They also demand lower taxes, more trade barriers, less environmental protection, and the promotion of a very conservative agenda on family matters. With the help of the legislative power, Trump is willing to give them all that and more.
Europe has a serious problem with Trump's return, well illustrated by the fact that Emmanuel Macron congratulated the Republican candidate before his victory was confirmed. We are about to witness a regrettable European disunity in response to the victory of a politician who celebrated Brexit and cheers on Viktor Orbán and Nigel Farage. We must brace ourselves for an unedifying competition among European leaders, eager to show who admires and respects Trump the most, "an admirer, a slave, a friend, a servant," as in the movie Robbery at 3 O'clock.
Undoubtedly, the European leader most concerned about this outcome is Volodymyr Zelensky. He knows that Trump wants to immediately negotiate a ceasefire with Vladimir Putin, which would reward him for the invasion by annexing the eastern provinces. After Ukraine's partition, the Kyiv government would not receive a security guarantee from Nato or the United States.
All Europeans have much to lose in the next four years of Trump's second term. They lack their own security and defence capabilities, precisely when the world has entered a more dangerous era. Global prosperity and multilateral institutions have given way to a geopolitics based on power.
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