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Cristina Vallejo
Friday, 23 August 2024, 18:29
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The province of Malaga has witnessed 5,644 births in the first half of this year. For the same period the number of deaths exceeded 7,000. This means that the mortality rate in the province is almost 25% higher than the birth rate. Yet, when compared to the rest of the country, Malaga's mortality rate is one of the best in Spain. In fact, at national level the number of births in the first half of 2024 was 156,202, a figure that compares starkly with the 227,167 deaths, a 45% difference. Similarly at regional level, for Andalucía the 38,430 deaths in the first half of the year are 31% more than the 29,274 births for the same period.
The Spanish province with the worst data on negative vegetative balance (the difference between births and deaths with a negative being more deaths) is Zamora. In this province with 1,405 deaths in the first six months of this year, there have been only 353 births, which means that for every birth there are almost four deaths. Similar negative balances are recorded in Ourense and Lugo, for example, in Galicia. These are all numbers that emerge from the estimates published yesterday by Spain's national statistics institute (INE).
The only areas of Spain with a positive vegetative balance - that is, the only ones where the number of births has exceeded the number of deaths so far this year, are Melilla, Ceuta, Almería and Madrid. Melilla saw 406 new babies to 223 deaths and Ceuta welcomed 316 new residents and lost 268. In Almería the deaths were just 4.4% less than the births (2,928 and 3,064 respectively). For Madrid the difference is only slightly positive: 25,739 births to 25,229 deaths.
Together with these places only a handful of others have better figures than Malaga province, but only because the number of deaths exceeds the number of births by a smaller margin than in Malaga. So, while in the province the number of deaths exceeds the number of births by around 25%, in Guadalajara this proportion is 24%, then around 23% in Seville and Girona and, finally, in Murcia and the Balearic Islands, the number of deaths in the first half of 2024 is 2% more than the number of births.
6,300 new residents in Malaga province in the first half of the year
This was made possible mainly by the contribution of people from other countries, which amounted to 6,140 new arrivals
However, the continuous population survey, also produced by the INE and published earlier this month, reported that during the first half of the year Malaga had grown by nearly 6,300 residents, the bulk of whom, 6,140, were born outside Spain, leaving only 158 born in the country. If we sync both sets of statistics, the latter and the one published by the INE this Thursday on births and deaths, we can conclude that the population increase in Malaga province is fundamentally based on the arrival of people both from other provinces in Spain and from the rest of the world. The contribution of the local birth rate alone cannot compensate for the number of deaths.
If all these figures are compared with those of a decade ago, we can see how the demographic scenario is changing in Malaga and throughout Spain. Thus, in a period similar to the one we have just analysed, the first half of 2014, more children were born in Malaga than people dying. Looking at the data, between January and June of that year there were 7,386 births, a figure that was almost 18% higher than the number of deaths (6,265). In barely ten years this ratio has swung from positive to negative because now deaths outnumber births by 25%.
20% this is how much the birth rate has fallen by in ten years
Meanwhile, deaths have increased by 12% for the same period
Why have births decreased and deaths increased? Looking at the birth rate now (5,644) compared to 10 years ago (7,386), that represents a drop in the birth rate of more than 20%. Meanwhile, deaths have risen from 6,265 in 2014 to 7,013 in 2024, an increase of 12%. The number of new babies has been declining year on year. However, the dynamics in the case of deaths has not been so linear, it has had ups and downs. Moreover it was very affected by the pandemic that pushed the death rate to record highs in 2022 when, in the first half of the year, the number of deaths was close to 7,800, and now it has fallen to just over 7,000.
Meanwhile, for the whole of Spain 10 years ago, the 208,375 births outweighed the deaths (204,464), resulting in a positive vegetative balance of close to 2%, compared with the current decline.
A decade ago Malaga's natural population growth was exceeded by some other Andalusian provinces such as Cadiz, where births exceeded deaths by 18%, as well as Seville, with 28.5% and Almería, where ten years ago the number of births exceeded deaths by a staggering 55%.
In contrast, in the first half of 2014, according to the continuous population survey, the number of residents in Malaga grew by 4,554 people, of which more than 3,000 were born in Spain, compared to the contribution of 1,500 inhabitants arriving from abroad. In this aspect there has also been an important demographic change in Malaga, as 10 years later population growth in the province is only possible thanks to the arrival of people from other countries.
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