Harvest forecast suggests a drop in olive oil prices in Andalucía

"It rained a lot and at just the right time". This is the phrase most often repeated by the farmers consulted by SUR when asked about the prospects for Malaga province's next olive harvest, which is due to begin in October.

This hope is now accompanied by reliable estimates and figures that point to the fact that the 2024/2025 season will be the first to reverse the downward trend in production of recent years, due to the lack of rain.

Dcoop has shared its forecasts for Malaga province with SUR. The sector giant estimates that the next olive season will increase by 30 per cent. In the case of the Antequera-based cooperative, this means that the harvest will rise from 20,000 tonnes to around 27,000 tonnes.

"We improved on last year's harvest. A trend that will be general in the rest of the provinces. Although there has been less rain in Malaga than in other provinces, so the increase in production will be somewhat less", the sources consulted indicate. Extending the focus to the whole province, bearing in mind that last year's crop was 36,000 tonnes, the 30 per cent increase will translate into a harvest of around 46,800 tonnes.

These figures place Malaga at the same level as in the 2016/2017 season. While the figures are not worth putting the champagne on ice just yet, they do begin to reverse the trend of the last two seasons. It is worth remembering that these had become, successively, the worst two years of the century for the sector.

Nevertheless, the 46,800 tonnes that are forecast for the coming harvest in Malaga are a far cry from pre-drought figures. The last one to be classified as "normal" by the sector dates back to the 2021/2022 season. At that time, production in the province amounted to 57,400 tonnes. To put these figures into context, the best harvest of this century was in the 2011/2012 season when 94,300 tonnes of olives were harvested.

Next season will still be far from those figures, but it does give the sector some breathing space. Malaga has not left the drought behind, but the circumstances were favourable with the abundant rains that fell over Easter week.

"The olive trees are doing well at the moment. It is a tree that withstands high temperatures very well, but it was already very weakened after two years without any water. The Easter rains came at the right time," José Antonio Mata, a farmer from Villanueva de Tapia, explained to SUR.

The sector is looking forward to the coming autumn and praying that the season will be accompanied by new rains to finish off the size of the olives. But even if these rains do not come, the most recent harvests will certainly improve.

The coming season, in any case, is of great importance. Despite the increase in prices, oil consumption has remained stable. With fewer stocks, but with a similar demand, the tanks in the cooperatives are empty. "We are going to get there, but there won't be a litre left over", said Dcoop's president, Antonio Luque, in a recent interview.

With an "acceptable" harvest on the horizon, the question now is how the price will evolve. At the moment, the price per litre of extra virgin olive oil is still around ten euros. Once the new crop comes in, it is hoped that for the first time in more than two years there will be some relief for the consumer's wallet. "There will be a significant drop in the price in January," assured Luque. Therefore, the market is facing a reduction, but it will not be in the short term. We will have to wait at least until the early part of 2025.