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While it has not yet recovered from the previous one, a complex adverse weather situation threatens to bring heavy rain to Malaga province this week. As a result, Spain's state weather (Aemet) has issued several amber weather alerts, which means that the downpours could pose a risk for some of the population. The heaviest accumulations are expected to happen mainly on Wednesday and possibly continue into Thursday, and once again the areas most likely to affected will be in the city, Guadalhorce valley, the Costa del Sol and Axarquia.
On this occasion, the meteorological phenomenon is more complex than the previous one, as Jesús Riesco, head of Aemet in Malaga, explained to SUR. Initially, the isolated high-level depression (Dana) will drop in the coming days, and while at the end of last week it seemed that it was going to position itself again towards Levante, now the trajectory has changed, and "that's why we often have to talk about the uncertainty of these phenomena". Now it is expected to position itself towards the southwest of the Spanish mainland.
But, above all, the main change compared to previous instances is that this one will have a "surface reflection" and will give rise to a cyclogenesis. Therefore, from Wednesday onwards, we will no longer speak of a Dana but of a different meteorological phenomenon: the isolated cold low (BFA). This differs from the previous one in that "it is associated with the formation of a surface storm, which is what we call cyclogenesis".
For now, and with 48 hours to go, Aemet has already activated an amber weather warning for Wednesday, which will be the day initially predicted as "worst", in Malaga city, the central part of the Costa del Sol, the Guadalhorce valley and Axarquia areas. The warning threshold indicates downpours in excess of 30mm and up to 60mm in one hour; and 80 to 120mm in twelve hours. "It is a potentially adverse situation," acknowledged the meteorologist.
"It is possible that the episode of heavy rainfall will continue on Thursday", although, in theory (at 11am this Monday) it is expected to decrease by that day. "At the moment, there are no warnings for that day because it is only three days ahead, but we will see if it is necessary". On Friday there could be showers of little significance.
At the moment the European forecast model gives the possibility of accumulated rainfall of more than 100mm, with the epicentre of the most intense downpours in the capital of Malaga city and the metropolitan area. A ring where between 80 and 90mm is expected then extends to the Guadalhorce valley, which was precisely the area most affected by the floods of the previous Dana.
In the Axarquia area som 40-50mm of rain could be recorded and between 30 and 50mm in the parts of the Costa del Sol closest to Malaga city (Torremolinos, Benalmádena, Fuengirola...) Also inland in the province, particularly in the Vega de Antequera, between 40 and 50mm might be collected, provided that the forecasts of the European model, one of the main sources of information that Aemet uses to make its weather forecasts. are correct.
In this instance, areas that have benefited greatly from rainfall in previous situations in October, such as the Serranía de Ronda, Marbella and Estepona, could receive downpours of between 10 and 30mm, not insignificant for the drought situation, but far from what is forecast for the rest of the previously mentioned areas.
In addition to the above, Wednesday will also see a drastic drop in temperatures across Malaga province. In the city and on the coast, maximum temperatures will be only 17C (they reached 24 degrees during last weekend). Inland, for example, in Antequera it will be 13 degrees. The expected drop will be six degrees compared to the trend of previous days.
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