This year in Spain likely to be classed as 'extremely warm' after autumn with above normal average temperature
The state weather agency Aemet says there is only a 10% chance that this winter will be colder than usual
This year is heading towards its end and meteorologically everything points to it once again being an "extremely warm" year, just like the last three, even more so after an autumn in which the average temperature reached 15.4C or 1C above normal.
This was announced on Tuesday by the state meteorological agency (Aemet). The climatic balance of the autumn shows a very warm and dry season. According to Aemet, this winter (from December 2025 to February 2026) is likely to also be warmer than usual, with only a 10% probability of it being colder than normal. However, uncertainty regarding precipitation is higher.
Aemet has confirmed that this past autumn (from 1 September to 30 November 2025) was very warm, with temperatures 1C above the average for the 1991-2020 reference period. It was the ninth warmest autumn in the series and the eighth warmest so far this century, "which shows a trend towards warm autumns in recent decades".
Autumn was very warm on the Cantabrian coast, the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula, most of the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands and "extremely warm" in parts of Andalucía, Ceuta and Melilla. In the rest of the country, it was warm, with some isolated areas where it was normal or cold.
Autumn began with a warm September, with the average temperature in mainland Spain 0.6C above normal for the month. October was very warm, with a temperature 2.1C above normal and November was warm, with an average temperature 0.3C above normal. Although warm spells were frequent, none were considered heatwaves. The highest temperatures were in Gran Canaria, where 39.9C was reached on 19 September, and Granada and Cordoba, where 39.1C was measured on 17 and 18 September, respectively.
As for minimum temperatures, the lowest values were recorded on 22 November at the Navacerrada pass (-6.9C) and in Ávila (-5.5C).
The autumn was, on the whole, dry, with an average rainfall over mainland Spain of 166.3mm, which represents 83% of the normal value for the 1991-2020 reference period. This did not prevent spells of torrential rainfall from occurring in the Mediterranean area. Particularly noteworthy were the almost 175mm in Tortosa (Tarragona) on 12 October, followed by 127mm in Ibiza on 11 October, both associated with the Alice 'dana' (heavy cold drop). In Ibiza alone, over the course of the autumn, rains produced 425mm, surpassing the previous record set in the autumn of 1958 (423mm).
A warmer winter
According to this climate assessment, Aemet believes it is "highly probable" that 2025 will again be "extremely warm", as in the previous three years, with a provisional average temperature of around 15C for the country as a whole. The four warmest years in the historical series are the last four - a clear warning sign of climate change and its social, economic and environmental impact.
In terms of rainfall, 633mm metre were accumulated up to 9 December, 8% above the normal average.
Aemet forecasts another season warmer than usual this winter, with a 60% probably of above-normal temperatures in mainland Spain and 70% in the archipelagos. The probability of a colder than normal winter is only 10%.
Uncertainty is higher when it comes to precipitation. In the south-west of mainland Spain, there is a 40% probability that the winter will be drier than normal, compared to a 25% probability that it will be rainier. In the rest of the country, "there is no clear trend and both scenarios are equally likely".
Cold and snow from Sunday, 21 December
The most important snowfalls at the end of the year will arrive on Sunday, 21 December, coinciding with the start of the astronomical winter. According to Aemet spokesperson Rubén del Campo, snowfall can be expected in all the mountains of mainland Spain and it could even snow in lower areas of the northern plateau, the east of Galicia and the north of Castilla y León.
Del Campo asks the public to pay attention to future weather updates, because this possible drop in snow levels will coincide with dates of considerable mobility due to the start of the Christmas holidays. "We must keep an eye on these probable snowfalls, especially on Sunday, when the temperature will drop". Aemet also believes that, according to some models, the first days of Christmas will be marked by cold weather, with a wintry atmosphere and frost in the interior of the country, "but there is still a lot of uncertainty". "We have to refine more and we will do so in the next few days," he said.
