Experts warn of risk of torrential rains this autumn: 'Malaga and the Costa del Sol are very prone to these weather phenomena'

Experts from the weather portal Meteored issued a warning this week that conditions are ripe this autumn for "a major torrential rain event" to occur in the Mediterranean basin, which includes Malaga and the Costa del Sol. However, they did specify that the 'Dana' storm that mainly affected the region of Valencia in October last year was an "extraordinary" event and it could be many years before it is repeated.

This was made clear by José Miguel Viñas, Francisco Martín and Samuel Biener during the meeting 'Danas in the autumn of 2025 and their possible extreme effects'. Specifically, Biener highlighted the high risk of heavy rainfall returning to the countries bordering the Mediterranean. In this regard, he noted that warm seas and available atmospheric moisture increase the risk of violent storms, while temperatures are expected to be above average.

Turning to more specific areas, Biener commented that the Gulf of Valencia is "sensitive" to these types of weather events. He also indicated that other susceptible areas include the eastern part of Almeria, the headwaters of the Guadalentin river and the Rambla del Nogal. He also mentioned that Catalonia, the Balearic Islands and Malaga province, which includes the Costa del Sol, are "very prone" to these meteorological phenomena.

Experts have expressed concern about the trend observed in the Mediterranean, with the highest sea temperatures ever recorded there of late. However, they also say that the torrential rains of 2024 could probably "take years" to repeat.

Furthermore, they clarified that a warm Mediterranean alone is not synonymous with floods and catastrophic, extreme rainfall, while also pointing out that a 'Dana'-type storm is not necessarily synonymous with torrential rain and, in fact, many go unnoticed. Likewise, they also stressed that not all torrential rains are even caused by such storms. In this regard, they pointed out that a rainfall volume of 80 litres per square metre "is enough to cause problems".

In short, they asserted that, if there is an unstable situation, even if it is caused by a low front, and a highly populated area where "potentially floodable" areas have been occupied, any downpour of a certain intensity is going to cause problems. They also made the point that "rain does not kill", but rather "what humans do to the land is what kills".

In short, Biener stated that there have been warning signs this summer of what could happen in the coming months, such as persistently high temperatures and storms with very serious effects in some parts of Spain. He stated that there have been more episodes of extreme hail and violent storms due to the contribution of very warm and humid air from a Mediterranean that is undergoing a process of tropicalisation.

For his part, Viñas explained that deluges from a 'Dana' weather event pose a "significant" risk of torrential rains and floods, especially in the Mediterranean area, and that climate change exacerbates these phenomena by raising the temperature of the Mediterranean and increasing energy in the atmosphere, which increases the intensity and risk from such rains. Biener pointed out that, unfortunately, these deluges are "difficult" to predict except in the last few days leading up to them.

Meanwhile, Martín recounted the worst torrential rain catastrophes to have occurred in Spain: the Turia flood in 1957, which had rainfall of over 494mm in 24 hours with a maximum of 100mm in an hour, then the Tous flood of 1982, which he described as the "worst cold drop" of the century, with rainfall reaching up to 1,000mm, and finally the aforementioned 'Dana' in Valencia of last year.

As far as autumn is concerned, Biener predicts that temperatures will be above average in practically all of Europe. He stated that this is a "logical evolution" of weather behaviours seen in recent years due to climate change. As such, he believes it is very likely that this autumn temperatures will also be above average for the season in a large part of the Iberian peninsula and the islands close to the mainland.

For the time being, it is expected that rainfall for the rest of September will be below average in almost all of Spain and slightly above average in the northern third (Galicia, the Cantabrian mountain ranges, Catalonia, the Pyrenees and the Balearic Islands).

Likewise, he predicts a "summery" situation in Spain in the very short term this autumn, with a storm front circulating far to the north and with subtropical highs "embracing" the Spanish mainland and nearby islands.