What will the weather be like in Spain this autumn: Aemet gives a preview of the forecast

The summer of 2025 in Spain has bid farewell and left behind one of the two warmest peak holiday seasons, together with that of 2022, since 1961, with one or two degrees above normal, as confirmed on Monday by the state meteorological agency (Aemet), based on provisional data.

The news came as meteorological autumn began on 1 September, a season which is also expected to be warmer than normal, as the state body has advanced its first forecast for the coming months. According to the Aemet outlook, the most likely trend is that it will be a season with above-normal temperatures throughout the country.

There is a 60-70% probability that this autumn weather will be warmer than normal, compared to a 10% probability that it will be colder on the Spanish mainland and in the Balearic Islands. With regard to the Canary Islands, these figures stand at a 50% probability of it being warmer compared to a 20% probability of the autumn being colder than normal.

Regarding rainfall, there is a 45% chance that autumn will be less rainy than normal in the west and centre of the country, as well as in the Canary Islands, compared to a 20% chance that rainfall will be above normal in these areas, while for the east of the Spanish mainland and the Balearic Islands there is no clear trend.