Hottest summer since 1916 in Spain gives way to higher than usual temperatures and less rain this autumn

Spain's state meteorological agency Aemet has confirmed that the summer of 2025 has been the hottest not only since there are official records, that is since 1961 (when precipitation was first measured), but also since 1916, when the agency began to measure temperatures. The summer of 2025 was the hottest summer in at least the last 109 years. During a press conference this week, Aemet spokesperson Rubén del Campo said that this meteorological autumn (the September, October and November quarter) will be, in principle, warmer than normal and less likely to be a "particularly rainy" season.

The summer of 2025 (from 1 June to 31 August) was extremely hot, with an average temperature in mainland Spain of 24.2C, which is 2.1C above the average for this season. It was the warmest summer since 1916, surpassing by 0.1C the summer of 2022, which held the record for the warmest summer so far. It was also 0.6C warmer than the 2003 summer, which marked a turning point in terms of extreme temperatures. Del Campo highlighted that nine of the ten warmest summers since official records have occurred this century.

The greatest temperature anomalies - of more than 3C above the normal average - were observed in the interior of the mainland, especially in Galicia and the high plateaus. June and August were extremely warm and both were the warmest of their respective series. August tied with the same month in 2024. June was the most abnormally warm month in Spain since records have been kept, with 3.6C above the average for the reference period. "Of all the months since 1961 that have had above-normal temperatures, none has had such a marked deviation as June," Del Campo said.

Three heatwaves were recorded this summer - two in the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and one in the Canary Islands. The peninsular heatwaves occurred between 18 June and 4 July and between 3 and 18 August. In the summer as a whole, 33 heatwave days were recorded, i.e. one out of every three days of the summer recorded extreme temperatures. This is the second summer with the highest number of heatwave days after 2022, which had 41 days. The last summer without a heatwave was 2014.

The first heatwave was notable for its duration (17 days) and extent (40 provinces affected), making it the third longest and most extensive since at least 1975. The August heatwave was one of the most important on record in Spain, as it was the second most intense, the second most extensive and the fourth longest, with an anomaly of 4.2C, 42 provinces affected and 16 days of duration.

During this second heatwave, the highest temperatures were in Jerez de la Frontera, with 45.8C, and Morón de la Frontera, with 45.2C, both recorded on 17 August.

According to Aemet, the summer was, in general, dry in terms of rainfall. An average of 57mm were accumulated over mainland Spain - 81% of the normal value for the quarter. It was the 14th driest summer since 1961 and the seventh of the 21st century.

The character of the rainfall varied depending on the geographical area. It was very dry in Galicia, Asturias and large parts of northern Castilla y León. It was extremely dry in the interior of Galicia. These were also the areas that were devastated by serious forest fires in August.

In contrast, precipitation was wet or very wet in regions of the north-eastern peninsular, especially in Catalonia, Aragon and Navarre, as well as in areas of central and south-eastern Spain, including parts of Castilla-La Mancha and eastern Andalucía. The Canary Islands had a very wet summer (although in absolute terms rainfall was low, as is usual in summer), while the Balearic Islands did not generally deviate from what is normal for the season.

As for the hydrological year (which began on 1 October and will end on 30 September), Del Campo said that the country had registered 663mm up to 13 September, which is 9% above normal. "Even if it didn't rain at all, this year's character will be wet, just like last year's," when 671mm were collected. This accumulation of rainfall means that we have overcome the drought situation, both the 12-month drought and the so-called long-term drought that has served for rainfall analysis over the last three years.

According to Del Campo, the most likely scenario for the September, October and November quarter is that temperatures will be above normal throughout the country, with a probability of 60-70% on the Spanish mainland and the Balearic Islands and 50% in the Canary Islands.

Uncertainty is highest for precipitation. It is unlikely to be a particularly rainy autumn in the west and centre of the country, as well as in the Canary Islands (20% probability). The autumn in these areas is expected to be drier than the usual autumn (45% probability). There is more uncertainty about the Mediterranean coast and the Balearic Islands. All three scenarios - dry autumn, normal autumn or rainy autumn - are equally likely, 33%.

The forecast is quite similar for the October, November and December quarter (which coincides with the astronomical autumn). "A high probability that it will be warmer than normal and more likely to be drier than rainy in a large part of the Peninsula and the Canary Islands. There is no clear trend in areas of the north, east and the Balearic Islands," the spokesperson said, highlighting that these forecasts are unpredictable.