One-third of Malaga's population at risk from flash flooding by 2050, study warns
Despite chronic water deficits, the rise of 'Dana' episodes and coastal erosion will threaten high-density urban areas and seafront real estate developments
Malaga will require six times more water than is currently available by 2050 if climate change remains unchecked, a new study has warned.
The report by Axa Climate predicts a devastating impact on both public health and the economy, forecasting a 19 per cent drop in GDP per capita for the city due to extreme heatwaves, drought, and torrential rainfall.
Despite recent heavy storms, experts suggest the province is heading toward a "chronic" water deficit. By 2050, the demand-to-supply gap is expected to double compared to current levels, forcing industrial sectors to slash production to prioritise the general population and agriculture.
Economic and health risks
The study highlights a grim outlook for the next 25 years, including:
• Mortality: An estimated 10,000 additional deaths in the region attributable to extreme heat.
• Extreme Weather: Malaga is expected to endure 100 more "tropical nights" per year and heatwaves lasting four times longer than they do today.
• Tourism Shift: Extreme temperatures may force a total "reinvention" of the Costa del Sol’s holiday appeal as tourists seek cooler destinations.
Productivity and infrastructure
The report warns that rising temperatures will directly hit productivity. Workers in physically demanding sectors may need to work the equivalent of half a day longer to maintain current output levels in extreme heat.
Even the city’s growing technology sector is at risk, with data centres predicted to face nearly three days of total downtime annually due to cooling failures.
Flood and fire threats
While overall annual rainfall is expected to decrease, the risk of flash flooding from "Dana" (cold drop) episodes is set to rise. Researchers say 33 per cent of the population is at direct risk from flooding, particularly in the high-density areas of the city’s south-west.
Furthermore, the risk of forest fires is projected to increase by 58 per cent, threatening both rural safety and the organisation of outdoor cultural events.
Proposed solutions
Axa Climate concludes that Malaga must urgently "tropicalise" its infrastructure. Recommended measures include redesigning urban spaces with significantly more vegetation, adapting labour hours to avoid peak heat, and upgrading air conditioning and industrial machinery to cope with a sweltering climate.
