Friday, 24 November 2023, 09:37
According to Spain's state weather agency (Aemet), the spring-like temperatures of recent days are likely to last in Malaga and on the Costa del Sol at least until the start of December, which is barely a week away.
The temperature on Thursday was "normal" for this time of year, with a maximum in Malaga city of 18C, 20 degrees on the coast and 15-16 in Antequera and Ronda. The official weather station at Malaga Airport recorded the lowest minimum temperature so far this autumn, with 7.4 degrees.
However, today (Friday) and Saturday will see temperatures return to the previous trend, with values considered "unusual and above normal", n the order of 21-22C maximum, due to the predominance of the warm autumn 'terral' wind. The probability of these values at the end of November is "less than 20%", according to the data provided by Juan de Dios del Pino, Aemet's regional delegate in Andalucía.
Likewise, on Monday and Wednesday "unusual" values will be reached, again due to the predominance of the westerly terral wind, and will reach up to 23C. In addition, De Pino said that the minimum temperatures will also be abnormally high.
This November is on course to equal that of 2022, which was the all-time record temperature: "It will be just a tenth of a degree above or below it, depending on what happens between now and next Thursday", said José Luis Escudero, head of SUR's weather blog .
For the rest of the month, Aemet does not forecast any significant rainfall, apart from a possible episode next Tuesday (28 November), and which could leave a "token" amount inland, especially in the Antequera region.
But as the month changes, so will the weather. It is taken for granted that there will be a drop in the mercury to typical levels for December (around 19C degrees maximum, or even 17) as the week progresses, according to the forecast of the Weather.com portal.
However, the most important thing, given the severe drought situation in the province, is that from Friday, 1 December, a storm with an associated front could bring much-needed, abundant and widespread rainfall throughout Malaga province.
"A front is expected to cross our area, which could arrive in the early hours of Friday, the 1st, or even late on the night of the 30 November, but we are a long way off and there are still many days to go, so we have to be cautious," said José Luis Escudero. "I don't want to get my hopes up because we've already been disappointed more than once," added Escudero.
In fact, if this rain does nor come, November 2023 will go down in history with "zero litres" per square metre in the airport's rain gauge. Historically, November has been considered a good month in terms of rainfall, with 100 and up to 200mm collected; but there have also been many years in which very little has been collected, such as the last year and this one.
In any case, it is likely that on 1 December there will be a change in the weather and some rain will fall, although the expert prefers, for the moment, to "take it with a pinch of salt". "It won't be clear until all the details of the European weather model come out on Saturday or Sunday".
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