Malaga on tenterhooks as Expo 2027 decision day approaches: What will happen if it is chosen? What if it is not?

This coming Wednesday Malaga will find out whether it has been chosen to host Expo 2027, an international exhibition that focuses on the sustainable development of cities.

The headquarters of the International Bureau of Exhibitions in Paris is to host an assembly of delegates from 179 countries who will vote on the city to host the event in four years' time on 21 June.

Malaga was one of the first to bid to host Expo 2027. The mayor, Francisco de la Torre, announced his intention to promote the city in this way before the previous municipal elections in 2019. However, the backing of the Spanish government for the project did not come until December 2021, four months after the United States presented its proposal in Paris for the expo to be held in Bloomington, in the state of Minnesota.

Then, Phuket (Thailand), Belgrade (Serbia) and San Carlos de Bariloche (Argentina) joined the competition.

In recent months, the different candidate countries have intensified their diplomatic efforts to try to garner as much support as possible for their respective projects. At Wednesday's assembly in Paris, it will finally be known whether the Spanish government's efforts have been successful.

Which are the candidates for Expo 2027?

Five countries are bidding to host Expo 2027. Spain is proposing the city of Malaga to host the international exhibition with the theme, The Urban Era: Towards the Sustainable City. The event would take place between 5 June and 5 September 2027 on a site in an area known as Buenavista in Campanillas, south of the A-357 Guadalhorce motorway not far from the extension of the university campus.

The project would comprise 250,000 square metres of pavilions structured in a circular ring-shaped construction, an auditorium with a capacity for 4,000 people and more than 200,000 square metres of green area, an infrastructure that highlights the challenges of sustainable mobility and renewable energies.

The Thai city of Phuket has put in a bid proposing to host the event between March and June in 2027 with the theme, The Future of Life: Living in Harmony, Sharing Prosperity. Their theme aims to explore the relationship between humanity, technology and nature, with a commitment to an equitable sharing of prosperity among all countries. The proposed site is a 225,600 square-metre area on Mai Khao Beach, on the northern tip of Phuket Island.

Serbia's project, for the city of Belgrade, is themed Play for Humanity: Sport and Music for all, and would take place between May and August 2027. The aim is to address how to prepare "the human body, mind and logic for a world full of technology, insecurities and to make them more resilient for the coming decades", as they explained at their last presentation in Paris. The project for the expo includes the construction of a 52,000-capacity stadium and a large shopping complex with green areas.

Argentina is proposing the city of San Carlos de Bariloche, for an event that would start in January 2027 and run until April, and with the theme, Nature + Technology = Sustainable Energy. A Viable Future for Humanity. Their theme addresses "concrete actions in favour of sustainable energies, harnessing energy and human creativity, a new beginning that guarantees the quality of life of a growing population, while at the same time taking care of biodiversity and the environment". The Argentine expo would be located along National Route 40, a tourist route parallel to the Andes mountain range.

The United States proposes an expo between May and August 2027 with the slogan, Healthy People, Healthy Planet: Wellness for All, in Minnesota. The US proposal aims to bring attention to its healthcare economy. Minnesota is home to more than a dozen major health, nutrition, medical technology and wellness groups, and more than 387,500 people who work in the health sector. The expo would be located in Bloomington.

How will the vote to choose the host city go?

This Wednesday will be the third and last occasion in which Malaga's bid will face off against its competitors in a final presentation to the assembly of countries in Paris. It follows previous presentations in June and November last year. The last presentation featured speeches by actor Antonio Banderas and tennis star Rafael Nadal. The assembly will begin at 9.30am and will be followed by presentations of the different candidate cities until the final vote, which will take place at midday.

As with the last presentation in November, the city council, for the third and final pitch, will rely on Banderas's production company to present the attractions of the Spanish proposal to the assembly.

Each of the countries represented at the International Exhibitions Bureau will cast a single secret ballot for one of the candidates. The time of the vote will not be broadcast by the bureau, which will announce the chosen city on its Twitter account at around 1.30pm Spanish time. As there are more than two candidates for Expo 2027, a two-thirds majority would be needed for a country to be elected in the first round. If this is not the case, the proposal receiving the lowest number of votes is eliminated and the process is repeated until there are only two candidates left. The host country is then elected by simple majority.

How much has it cost to prepare and publicise Malaga's bid for Expo 2027?

The various presentations of Malaga's candidacy to the assembly of the International Exhibitions Bureau; the events to promote it held in cities such as Dubai, New York and Paris; the diplomatic work carried out by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the city council; and the various contracts awarded by the to prepare the documentation and the events held so far to promote the Malaga project, among other actions, have cost more than three million euros.

Specifically, according to the agreement between the different administrations to share the funding of the project, the central government is contributing 1,630,000 euros, and another 1,630,000 euros is being covered jointly by the Junta de Andalucía, which is providing 50% of this figure; the city council, 30%; and the provincial council (Diputación), which is contributing 20%.

What happens if Malaga is chosen to host Expo 2027?

In the event that Malaga is chosen, the authorities must start working practically against the clock to develop the infrastructure needed for this event in four years' time. The city council has already contracted multinational engineering and project management company Ove Arup to draw up the initial design for the ring of pavilions on the Buenavista site. A first draft will be shown on Wednesday in Paris.

According to studies carried out, a state-owned public company would have to be created to manage Expo 2027, to which the central government, the Junta, the city council and the Diputación would need to contribute a total of 540 million euros during its lifetime. This amount would cover most of the 860 million euros that the cost of the event is estimated at, including the construction of the site and the activities it would host. It is estimated that, during the 93 days of the exhibition, 3.1 million visitors could be recorded.

In the event that Malaga is selected, the city council is also confident that public investments pending for the city worth more than one billion euros can be finalised. These include large-scale projects such as the Málaga 'Plan Litoral' to build a road tunnel south of the city centre, the urban integration of the Guadalmedina river, the auditorium on the San Andrés port and the extension of the congress centre.

What happens if Malaga is not chosen?

In the event that Malaga's candidacy does not receive enough votes to be elected, one of the city's greatest aspirations in recent years will be overturned. The land on which the exhibition is planned is owned by the central government, which has signed a protocol of intentions with the city council to cede it in the event that the city is selected. If this is not the case, the land will remain fully in the hands of the central government.

Initially, this space was reserved for the expansion of the freight transport centre. However, at a forum organised by SUR in March, the possibility of developing a business park for digital nomads was put on the table as a 'plan B', in the event that Malaga is not selected.

However, in any event, what looks set to go ahead is the 1,362 subsidised rental housing project being promoted by the Entidad Pública Empresarial de Suelo (SEPES) on adjacent land covering an area of 272,400 square metres, although its intention is to contract out its construction to private companies. If the Expo is successful, these flats would be used to house the event's workers.