Will the Three Kings parades in Malaga province get rained off? Still too early to say, according to experts

The weather predictions for this year's Three Kings' parade ('cabalgata'), traditionally held on 5 January, are very uncertain, especially in Malaga. Storm Francis, which is expected to reach the province on Saturday, 3 January, will possibly be joined by a mass of air from the Arctic, leading to more cold, rain, hail and snow.

"It may rain in Malaga on Monday, due to the interaction between storm Francis and the cold air mass. What we don't know is whether it will rain earlier or later, in the morning or in the afternoon," director of the Aemet meteorological centre in Malaga Jesús Riesco said.

"On Monday, the polar cold air trough will lead to precipitation and a drop in temperatures, but there is tremendous uncertainty about the exact times when it will rain. A situation like this is complicated to model; it is even possible that we will have to wait until Sunday or Monday morning to see for sure," he said.

"In principle, things are looking good, but they could change. There won't be any certainty until Sunday or Monday. With this scenario, it is impossible to say what will happen in that time frame," Riesco warned. "Right now, nobody can say whether it will rain, because the slightest change alters the forecast."

What is certain is that rain will fall in Malaga province during the first weekend of the year. There are already some showers forecast for almost the entire province for Saturday. On Sunday, rainfall will reach parts of the Costa del Sol and the Guadalhorce Valley. Weather warnings have not yet been activated, but they are not ruled out, especially for 4 January.

This forecast complicates the organising of parades by district, due to take place from the weekend to 5 January. The one most likely to be cancelled is the Cruz del Humilladero parade, scheduled for Sunday.

According to the information provided by Aemet on 31 December, an isolated cold storm (similar to a 'dana'), named Francis, has formed in the area around the Azores and is approaching the Gulf of Cadiz.

It transports a subtropical air mass, warm and humid, which has already discharged over the Canary Islands (especially on the island of La Palma). It is expected in Huelva on Friday and in other parts of mainland Spain over the weekend.

At the same time, the formation of a stationary storm over Scandinavia and the establishment of high pressure in the North Atlantic will lead to the formation of a corridor of northerly winds that will drive an arctic air mass to Spain from Saturday onwards. However, this phenomenon is not expected in the south until Monday.

The rainstorm may be accompanied by heavy snowfall at medium altitudes. Although less likely, snow at central and lower altitudes is not ruled out. Due to the high level of uncertainty regarding the development of the situation, Aemet recommends a close monitoring of the updates in the forecasts.

Instability will increase in areas of the southern and south-eastern third of mainland Spain from Saturday onwards, with showers that could be locally heavy and persistent in the Gulf of Cadiz, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Costa del Sol and Cape La Nao.

The possible interaction with the cold mass on 4 and 5 January could lead to precipitation in the form of snow at medium or low altitudes in the south-eastern quadrant, with greater probability and accumulations in the east: east of the southern plateau, the mountain ranges of the region of Valencia and around the Betic System.

From 6 January onwards, the most likely scenario is that rainfall will decrease in intensity and extent in southern areas, although it could still be locally heavy in the Strait of Gibraltar and Melilla, while snowfall will be restricted to mountain areas, especially in the northern third of the country.

"Due to the complex interaction between the different phenomena, the forecast presents exceptional uncertainty, especially with regard to the extent and intensity of the areas of snowfall," Aemet says.