Is Malaga’s native population shrinking? New data reveals 2025 demographic gap

Malaga province saw a slight increase in births in 2025, but the upturn was not enough to offset a rising mortality rate driven by an aging population.

According to provisional estimates from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), a total of 11,744 babies were born in Malaga last year. This represents a modest increase of 51 births (0.43 per cent) compared to 2024. While the growth is minor, it is statistically significant as it breaks a decade-long downward trend, with 2021 being the only other year to see an increase in the last ten years.

Despite more babies being born, the province's "natural growth" remains in the negative. Mortality in Malaga rose more sharply than the birth rate in 2025, with an estimated 14,506 deaths - an increase of 5.87 per cent (805 more deaths) over the previous year.

To reach a positive replacement rate, Malaga would have needed at least 2,736 more births last year to balance the scales. This spike in deaths follows two years of relative stability after the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The primary driver behind the rising death toll is the demographic aging of the Costa del Sol. In 2025 alone, 3,066 people over the age of 90 passed away in the province, which is 380 more than in 2024.

At a national level, Spain saw a similar trend with 321,164 births - a 1 per cent increase. Malaga was one of 30 Spanish provinces to experience a rise in birth rates, yet it remains caught in a demographic squeeze common across Western Europe.

Crucially, these figures do not mean Malaga is losing residents. In fact, it remains one of the fastest-growing provinces in Spain. However, this expansion is fueled entirely by immigration - both from within Spain and abroad - rather than a "natural" increase in the native-born population.

Without the arrival of new residents from outside the province, Malaga’s total population would be in decline.