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This week Malaga has seen a string of weather warnings activated for heavy rainfall. The warning that is active for today in a large part of the province has already been extended to tomorrow, in similar terms.
At the moment, this Wednesday the Aemet Meteorological Centre is maintaining a yellow level warning (slight risk) due to the likelihood of rainfall of between 15 and 20mm in one hour, and up to 60mm accumulated over the course of the day. This could be the case in Malaga city and in the Guadalhorce valley, western Costa del Sol, Serranía de Ronda and Antequera area.
The truth is that, as it is a 'Dana' weather system, it is very difficult to model, so that a heavy downpour may fall in one area and yet hardly anything will be recorded close by. This is why the warnings have been extended to large areas of the province, although the level of danger is, in theory, only slight. Only the Axarquia area escapes this situation.
For tomorrow the scenario will be very similar: Aemet is once again forecasting downpours that could leave up to 60mm in twelve hours in parts of Malaga city, the western Costa del Sol, Guadalhorce valley and Serranía de Ronda. In this case, the heaviest rainfall is expected during the early hours of the morning, until 6am.
On Thursday evening (6pm) and Friday morning (until midday) there will be a transition in the atmosphere, in which no new precipitation is expected, according to the Aemet forecast.
But from midday on Friday and throughout the weekend, including Monday and Tuesday, an Atlantic storm will enter the scene. In this case it will be a different scenario, which will leave widespread precipitation, over large areas, and prolonged in time; unlike the 'Dana', which tends to leave violent discharges and in isolated spots.
This storm may leave accumulated rainfall (throughout the whole episode) of up to 100-120mm, especially in the westernmost part of the Costa del Sol and in the Guadalhorce valley. For the first time this year there is a clear probability of downpours of up to 40mm falling in the higher areas of La Axarquía, which could give a good boost to the provincial reservoir that is most in need of water, which is La Viñuela.
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