Global study finds winters in Spain are now warmer and shorter

Do you have the impression that winters in Spain are now somewhat shorter and less cold? The suspicion is true, and it is actually a proven fact. Climate Central researchers analysed the temperatures recorded in 123 countries and 901 cities in different parts of the world during the three winter months over the past decade, concluding we now have between seven and 14 "lost winter days", as they technically call days with minimum temperatures above freezing.

Climate Central is an organisation of researchers dedicated to publicising the effects of climate change who, above all, use publicly available data to cross-reference, project and draw relevant conclusions. For example, their maps of projected sea level rise were used at the 2021 UN climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland.

They have now applied large database analysis technologies to put the spotlight on temperature increases, and focused on winter. Normally, experts' attention is focused on the intense heat waves that have swept the world from east to west in recent years. This is undoubtedly one of the most pressing climate emergencies and one that will require the most adaptation from countries in the not too distant future. But here, the focus has been on warmer winters and their consequences.

The study shows that the area of the planet most affected by this phenomenon is the northern hemisphere, including Spain. According to their research, there are eight winter days lost on average in the past decade in Spain, that is, between 2014 and 2023.

Some 62% of Spanish provinces, 32 out of 52, had at least one additional week of winter days above freezing point, zero degrees, compared to a world without climate change.

The study goes so far as to highlight the Spanish provinces where it is most noticeable that winters are no longer what they used to be. León is the most affected over the last ten years, according to the data. It is followed by Palencia, Soria and La Rioja. Of the four provinces pointed out in the report, three are in the region of Castilla y León.

Twelve Spanish cities were included among the 901 analysed throughout the world. They were: Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao, Zaragoza, Valencia, Pamplona, Seville, Granada, Malaga, Almeria, Huelva and Cadiz. The cities with the worst results, such as the highest number of days with warmer minimum temperatures in winter, were Granada (14), Pamplona (13), Madrid (9 days), Zaragoza (7) and Bilbao (3).

The picture in Spain is not one of the worst compared to the rest of the world. The countries with the most critical situation, losing at least three additional weeks worth of winter days, three times more than in Spain, are Denmark, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

All of them are located in Europe, which is once again one of the areas of the world most affected by climate change. Europe is also the part of the world that most of the 19 countries with a loss of more than two weeks of freezing days are to be found, the data shows.

At Spain's level are 25 other countries in Europe and Asia, which registered between one week and two more with days that did not fall below freezing. These countries were Italy, France, Austria and Norway in Europe, and Afghanistan, Iran and Japan in Asia.

Fuji in Japan is one of the cities with the largest increases in lost winter days. On 6 November, the Japanese celebrated the first snowflakes finally falling on the iconic Mount Fuji, the latest in 130 years since records began. Snow covers the sacred peak every year from 2 October. But 2024 will end up as the warmest year on record.

Alongside Fuji, Turin and Verona (Italy), Norway's Bergen and Riga (Latvia) stood out as having had no less than one month of lost winter days (with minimum temperatures above zero degrees) in the past decade.

This figure is extraordinary as the average is seven winter days lost. This figure is the benchmark given to indicate the countries with a significant impact on their winters. A total of 44 of all those analysed are in this situation.

These changes have serious implications for both the economies and the human and environmental health of affected areas. "The snow, ice and cold temperatures that used to characterise the winter season are rapidly disappearing in many places, threatening ecosystems, economies and cultural traditions. To prevent this, it is critical to urgently phase out fossil fuels, the burning of which is the main emissions driver of rising global temperatures," said Climate Central vice president Kristina Dahl.

Cold winters are crucial for maintaining winter sports, which are key to the economic prosperity of many towns and villages, especially in central Europe, where ski resorts drive a large part of the economy. Spain's resorts are no strangers to this problem where the country has lost 15% of its snow volume in recent years.

In terms of natural resources, the replenishment of the snow cover on the summits of the countries is essential for the subsequent supply of freshwater during the thaw and to counteract the threat of droughts, which are also expected to be severe in the near future due to climate change.

Even the life cycles of plants are altered by warmer winters. On the one hand, as Emma Gaitán, PhD in environment and head of meteorology and climatology at the Foundation for Climate Research, pointed out, crops may flower earlier than expected. "If there is an untimely frost, such as in spring, when the fruit has already come out, it can end up killing it, or freezing it from the inside, with the consequent damage to the agricultural sector and food security," she said.

Allergies are also being brought forward to the autumn months. Daniela Silva, a specialist in internal medicine and e-health medical manager at Cigna Healthcare Spain said the fact that winter is being pushed aside leads to "greater exposure to allergens", which, together with high temperatures, generates "a greater intensity and duration of allergic symptoms". "Changes in the weather can favour the proliferation of pollen-producing plants and other allergens, as well as increasing the concentration of pollen in the air," she added.

Agriculture, with the wine sector being the most affected, and the life cycles of insects are other aspects most affected by warm winters. The plagues of flies, ticks and moths that have settled in different parts of Spain throughout the warm season of 2024 is an example of this. Moth larvae did not die naturally during the winter as it was not cold enough, José Luis Viejo Montesinos, an expert from the Spanish entomological society, pointed out. This led to an unusual abundance of adult specimens during spring, he added.