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More births and fewer deaths: the first figures from the INE (Spain's national statistics institute), albeit still provisional, suggest that 2024 was an atypical year demographically speaking. Both in Spain as a whole and in Malaga the birth rate increased and mortality decreased, which represents a break in the trend of recent years linked to the ageing of the population.
Over the course of 2024 the INE estimates that 13,728 deaths were registered in Malaga, representing a decrease of 1.65% with respect to the (now definitive) figure for the previous year. This reduction in deaths is more intense than that which has occurred in the country as a whole (-0.08%), but less than that recorded in Andalucía (-2.54%). Mortality has been falling in Malaga since 2022 and in 2024 it reached its lowest level since 2018.
As for the birth rate, the estimate for the first 11 months of 2024 is 10,901 babies being born in Malaga, which represents an increase of 1.47% compared to the first 11 months of 2023. This does point to a change in trend, as births have followed a downward curve since 2008, which was when they marked the historical maximum in the province as 19,000 children came into the world. It remains to be seen whether the data for the last month of 2024 (yet to be published) will confirm this break in the drop in births in Malaga.
This increase in births has also occurred at national level, but with less intensity than in Malaga, as the percentage of growth is only at 0.8%. At regional level, on the other hand, the birth rate for Andalucía continues to fall: between January and November 2024, 1.33% fewer babies were born than in the same period in 2023.
Will this apparent revival in the birth rate help Malaga province return to a positive natural increase in population? We will have to wait for the December birth figures to add up the total for the whole year, but it is unlikely that the birth and death lines will cross again, as more than 2,827 babies would have to have been born in the last month of the year for Malaga to be able to boast more births than deaths. The current monthly average recorded is less than 1,000 babies.
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