Costa del Sol can breathe a little easier while Malaga and the Axarquia will end summer with just enough water

Where exactly are we with the ongoing scarcity of water in the Andalucía region on southern Spain? "In any case, we must not lose sight of the fact that in the current situation the state of scarcity is not the same in the whole of the single system described, since while in the Campo de Gibraltar and Western Costa del Sol we can formally speak of a situation of severe scarcity, La Viñuela continues in severe scarcity and Guadalhorce-Limonero continues in exceptional drought, as severe scarcity and prolonged drought coincide, without taking into account that the indicators of the latter system of exploitation will return to severe scarcity in a matter of 2-3 months". In May the experts in the regional government's drought committee had already put these projections in black and white. And they were not wrong. This is pretty much how the picture will be at the beginning of October with the change of the hydrological year.

The Malaga city, Guadalhorce valley and Axarquia areas of the province will enter the autumn period with just enough water for one year. Note, we are talking about urban consumption only, not water for agricultural use.

The rainfall from the tropical storms of Monica and Nelson, which happened in a widely distributed and continuous manner, managed to really save the summer. They occurred on the weekends of 8 March and Easter Week respectively and caused generous runoffs to the reservoirs. In fact, until 13 May, the day on which the general curve changed and the sharp drop in water levels began, Malaga's reservoirs went from storing a scarce 97 cubic hectometres to almost 171. This was an unquestionable boost that allowed the water supply to rise to 200 litres per person per day throughout the province, filling the swimming pools and allowing extra irrigation to take place.

The countryside is the area that has not allowed itself to celebrate too much, receiving only small volumes of relief (9 and 3 hm3 respectively) from the Guadalhorce's and Axarquía's reservoirs. Recycled water is already being sent from the sewage treatment plant of Peñón del Cuervo in Malaga city to irrigate lands to the east of the town of Guaro.

The summer is generally going according to plan. Less water is being consumed than in other summers for the simple reason that it is restricted. When we talk about 200 litres, it should be noted that this is not the measure of each person's consumption at home, but rather the amount that enters the main deposits feeding into towns and cities, calculated by population. And it is still forbidden to fill swimming pools from empty or to wash the car outside authorised car-wash premises.

Since 13 May, in one quarter of the year, the volume of water in the reservoir has dropped in stages: from 170.92 hm3 to 160, 150, 140 and now 130. Taking into account what lies ahead, some 26 hm3 more will likely be consumed by the beginning of the hydrological year. This is the rule of the reservoir, in which not only the incoming water and that which is sent to the network applies, but also evaporation that, especially in the Guadalhorce, can exceed 25 hm3 in years with high reserves.

This being the case, the province will be facing the abyss of falling below 100 hm3 again in late autumn, assuming it does not rain. However, the readings must be taken by zones.

In Malaga province, the Guadalhorce and Viñuela reservoirs will enter the hydrological year on 1 October with all the alarm bells ringing unless there are significant rains in September. The provincial capital will start the new hydrological year at a clear disadvantage regarding water supplies in the reservoirs but with a better back-up plan thanks to the combination of some new wells drilled and El Atabal desalination plant in operation, which is capable of treating low quality water at source. The new wells at Aljaima and Fahala and the dam, also at Aljaima, which is capable of capturing outflows from the Guadalhorce when they come from the Río Grande at times of certain overspills, will relieve the pressure on the reservoirs. Emasa (Malaga city's municipal water authority) knows how to work with this strategy, which has already been tried and tested.

As the aforementioned report said, before the summer the numbers were up enough to get out of the worst drought threshold of serious and severe. The three reservoirs of the Guadalhorce stored more than 85 hm3 in spring, when that threshold stood at 71. Right now they are around 60 hm3 and, if the cycle does not change, they will have clearly dropped below 50 at the start of the hydrological year. Water for one year with many difficulties yet to face.

At no time has the Axarquía got out of 'serious drought' level despite exceeding 31 hm3 at one point, and it will only be around 23 hm3 by the end of September if current consumption is maintained. This can be taken as given as the drought committee's May report set a target of 22, which would ensure urban consumption, but not agricultural consumption, for one year. The whole area is facing a very difficult time getting out of the red (danger) level since it would have to exceed 41.5 hm3 in La Viñuela reservoir.

The 270 litres per second of drinking water that were transferred for months from Malaga are also unlikely to be resumed.

On the Costa del Sol the local population is breathing a little easier, although Acosol's experts (the public water company for the main Costa towns) are reluctant to raise any glasses because La Concepción is not a large reservoir and as such cannot offer more than seven months of peace of mind. However, by December the Marbella desalination plant will be producing 20 hm3 of water following its two-stage upgrade, 22% of what the Torremolinos-Manilva area needs per year.

Now, at the height of summer and the greatest demographic pressure, La Concepción reservoir near Marbella is losing around 1.5 hm3 per week. It will enter October with around 25 hm3. That is not just leaving behind the serious level, it is jumping from severe to moderate. For August and September they have 4.5 hm3 and 3.2 hm3 respectively of water in storage. In mid-August it is still storing some 32 hm3 of the 43.11 it reached in May.

In this context, it is foreseeable that the drought committee could reduce the allocation to 160 litres per inhabitant per day for the two zones still in a serious drought situation.