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Ignacio Lillo
Friday, 20 September 2024, 10:09
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Weather instability will mark the start of the weekend on the Costa del Sol and in the western half of the province. Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) forecasts the possibility of showers and thunderstorms, although they will leave rather scarce accumulations, far from what is necessary given the serious drought situation in which most of Malaga finds itself.
For now, the first of the three days of predicted instability, on Thursday, resulted in accumulated rainfall of more than 12mm in La Encantada, in the Chorro area (Alto Guadalhorce); almost 9mm in Los Montes (Santón Pitar) and Casarabonela; 6mm in Villanueva de la Concepción and the same in Ojén, as well as 5mm in Coín, according to data from the Junta de Andalucía's Hidrosur Network.
As far as water reserves are concerned, the most notable rainfall was at the Casasola reservoir, with 4mm. Brief showers also fell in the area of La Cala del Moral and Rincón de la Victoria. However, the initial prediction that the heaviest downpours would occur in Marbella, Estepona, Ronda and, in general, in the western part of the province did not come true. The Harmonie weather forecast model used by Aemet Agency, shared by the Hidrosur network on its social media, warned of possible accumulated rainfall of up to 20mm in these areas, due to the passage of several bands of rain.
This unstable situation is due to the influence of a 'Dana' weather depression in higher levels of the atmosphere positioned to the north of the Spanish mainland, which creates lines of instability that are touching - collaterally and very weakened - the extreme south of the country.
The situation is very changeable and for today, Friday, Aemet has substantially reduced the possibility of heavy rain. The official forecast yesterday reduced it to "cloudy skies, without ruling out occasional showers, more likely in the western half of the day during the first half of the day, and in the Betic mountain ranges from the afternoon onwards". There will also be morning mist on the coast.
On Saturday there is also still a lot of uncertainty, although the probability of rain remains the same. In the case of the city of Malaga, Aemet gives 100%, but concentrated during the early hours of the morning (from midnight to midday).
The meteorologists forecast "cloudy skies with the probability of occasional showers, more likely on the Mediterranean slopes in the morning, and in the eastern mountain ranges during the afternoon, where they may be accompanied by thunderstorms. From midday onwards, clearings will start to open up, except in the far west".
On Sunday, the risk of further showers in Malaga province will disappear. Another important issue is that of temperatures. If at present they remain low for what is normal at this time of year (with highs of around 25-26C), from Sunday onwards they will tend to recover, and on Tuesday they will return to the normal of 29 degrees, which is usual for September (with 20 degrees at night). In addition, there may be some warm 'terral' wind blowing, albeit mildly.
For the moment, and with only one week left, very little water has accumulated, in one of the months when it is traditionally most expected, although in recent years September has tended to be as dry as the rest of the summer. In fact, the mercury is expected to rise in the last week and there is no sign of a possible arrival of fronts. At least, last Saturday there were good accumulations of more than 26mm in El Juanar, in Ojén, and between 10 and 20mm in various parts of the province, according to data gathered by the local Malaga weather expert, José Luis Escudero.
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