'Cold drop' weather depression due to hit Malaga province and Aemet raises the chance of rain this weekend to 90%

The meteorological autumn could begin in Malaga province and along the Costa del Sol with a rainy start. Experts at the Meteored weather portal have warned of the approach of a 'dana' (depresión aislada en niveles altos), a 'cold drop' depression at high levels of the atmosphere. This is what the forecasters have warned: "A dana is going to break out of the atmospheric circulation over the southwest of the mainland with values typical of October or November. It will leave abundant precipitation, some of a stormy and torrential nature especially in the vicinity of the Mediterranean with a very warm sea and potentially laden with water vapour which will feed the storms". Although 'danas' are complex and very difficult to model, there is a glimmer of hope for those hoping for much-needed rain. This is reflected today in the forecast of the state weather agency (Aemet). On Monday the probability of rain in Malaga this coming weekend was around 65%. Today, this percentage is more optimistic and has risen to 90% across the whole of Malaga province.

However, it is still too early to precisely determine the effect this phenomenon will have on the province, as José Luis Escudero reminds us in his SUR blog 'Tormentas y rayos' (storms and lightning): "In each update, the main weather models give different rainfall accumulations and hardly any for some Andalusian provinces. What is clearer is that it will be located at Cabo de San Vicente in the early hours of Sunday morning, but it is enough to be located 100 km to the east or west for it to discharge a lot in some provinces and not at all in others", he stressed.

At the moment, Aemet points to Sunday as the day when this instability will dominate in Malaga (the probability of showers is 90%). However, the situation will start to become more complicated from midday on Saturday, when the possibility of having to open an umbrella is around 50%. The thermometers will not be unaffected by this phenomenon either, with a drop that will begin to be felt as early as Friday - with minimum temperatures of 22C and maximums of 28 degrees in Malaga city. Looking ahead to Sunday, it will be colder, with highs of no more than 24 degrees.

In the absence of knowing how this 'dana' will evolve, Aemet forecasts that on Monday the weather will remain unsettled in the province. The probability of rain at the start of next week is 70% for Monday and drops to 35% on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain mild, with minimum temperatures of 18-19C and maximums of 24-25 degrees in the first days of September.