Aemet activates alert for heavy rain in Malaga province and along the Costa del Sol, and this is how much is expected

The anticyclonic blockade over Spain is coming to an end. The arrival of Atlantic storm Karlotta is set to bring a radical change in the weather. So much so that the state meteorological agency (Aemet) has issued an exceptional weather warning for adverse phenomena starting this Wednesday. The forecast points to strong gusts of wind, stormy seas, lower temperatures and widespread rainfall throughout Spain over the next few days, including the Andalucía region. And Malaga province - which includes the Costa del Sol - will not be left out of this scenario. With the current weather models, Aemet is forecasting a large amount of rainfall, which could especially benefit Malaga and Cadiz.

Both will be under a yellow warning for heavy rainfall from midnight on Thursday to Friday. This warning will last until 9pm. In the case of Malaga, the state agency forecasts 15mm in one hour and accumulated rainfall of between 40 and 50mm in Ronda, Malaga city, the Costa del Sol and Guadalhorce Valley.

"The important thing is that the two main models (European and American) on this occasion, unlike the last ones, have similar predictions, they both tally". And what these weather systems agree on is that it will start raining in the province at the western end (as usual), in the early hours of Friday morning. This was explained by José Luis Escudero, a local weather expert in Malaga and author of the SUR blog 'Tormentas y Rayos' (Storms and Lightning).

He added: "It is a very wet and active front, which comes with a river of humidity and is pushed by the so-called 'rainy' winds. Therefore, we will see some interesting accumulations, especially in the Serranía de Ronda and along the western strip of the Costa del Sol, but also in the upper Axarquía area and in Malaga city", he pointed out. If this scenario is confirmed, the reservoir that will benefit the most is also one of those most in need of water: La Concepción in Marbella. The reservoir that supplies a large part of the Costa del Sol is at a very low level, at just 22.7% of its capacity with barely 13 cubic hectometres stored.

At the moment, Aemet points out that from Friday night onwards the storm will lose strength in the province. The current forecast is for a 40% chance of rain on Saturday in Malaga city. "On that day we will have post-frontal showers from the early afternoon, affecting the province unevenly. On Sunday, the probability of rainfall will decrease," Escudero said.