Will the summer temperatures be hotter than usual in the south of Spain this year?

From umbrellas to fend off the rain to sun parasols to beat the heat. The spring that is now drawing to a close has been the third rainiest in the Andalucía region of southern Spain since records have been kept (1961) and it will give way to a summer that is expected to be warmer than usual. These are the main conclusions of the report presented this Wednesday by the state meteorological agency (Aemet) on the seasonal data for spring - for the Aemet, the period between 1 March and 31 May - and the weather forecast for the summer, from 1 June to 31 August.

The regional delegate of Aemet in Andalucía, Ceuta and Melilla, Juan de Dios del Pino, has detailed a forecast which considers that in Andalusia there is a 60% probability that the summer will be hotter than normal -somewhat higher in the far east of the region, while there is a 30% chance of a 'normal' average temperature, and a 10% chance that the temperature will be colder than the usual values.

Before the start of summer, Andalucía recorded the end of a 'very wet' spring in terms of rainfall, according to Aemet, being the third wettest since 1961 after recording 301.6mm on average. Still in the lead is the spring of 2018, with 351.9mm, the driest being that of 1977 with only 42.1mm.

By month, March recorded an average rainfall of 223.9mm (the second wettest), 'very wet' for this month, while April and May, with 52.5mm and 25.2mm, are considered by the state agency as 'normal'. It should be noted that 74.1% of the spring rainfall was recorded in March, due to a drought and the storms Jana, Konrad, Laurence, Martihno.

As far as temperatures are concerned, according to Europa Press sources, spring in Andalucía has been 'normal' according to the usual values, and is the 21st warmest in the historical series. The average temperature, 15.3C, reflects a positive anomaly of 0.3ºC compared to the 1991-2020 reference period. According to the Aemet, the warmest spring was that of 2023, with 17.3C and a +2.3 degree anomaly. By province, the spring of 2025 ranges from the tenth warmest since 1961 in Malaga to the 27th warmest in Huelva.

March was the 25th least warm month in Andalucía with an average temperature of 11.6C and an anomaly of -0.8 degrees, and is considered by the Aemet as a 'cold' March. With 15.2C and an anomaly of +1 degree, this April was the 12th with the highest average, making it a 'warm' month. May's 19C made it the 19th warmest, with a +0.8 degree anomaly, and it is classified as 'warm' by Aemet.

It should be noted that since 2019 all the springs in Andalucía have been warmer than average, and that of the 12 warmest since the beginning of the historical series in 1961, seven have been in the new millennium, which is almost two out of every three.