Predictions for the year ahead in top-level Spanish football

The most refreshing development of the first half of the season has been the Girona story. The small-town team, backed by a global consortium. Week after week, they have written another chapter in the fairytale. Their record is identical to Real Madrid, yet it could be argued that they play more entertaining football. This is backed up by the best scoring record in Spain.

Their success has come down to fine management and classy coaching. Michel has galvanised his veterans, allowed some cast-offs from the big clubs to flourish, and made the most of some wise investments. Nobody expects them to sustain the form, but the same was said of Leicester City and Blackburn before them in the Premier League. Personally, I think they'll finish in the top four and the leading clubs of Europe will have to find them on the map.

Atlético, my tip for the title, sit in third place but are a considerable seven points behind Girona and Real. I still think they have the depth of squad to outlast the rest of the challengers. This is one of Diego Simeone's best opportunities - he has options in every position, carries no veterans, and isn't schooling any youngsters. When the games pile up in the winter, with the Super Cup, Copa del Rey and Champions League, he'll be best equipped to refresh his team on a match-to-match basis.

Simeone's deep pool is a contrast to his Madrid rival Carlo Ancelotti. The Italian has done a remarkable job to take his team to the top of the tree at Christmas. From last season, he lost Karim Benzema, then goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, defensive rock Éder Militão for most of the season, and now David Alaba. They limped into Christmas without Viní Júnior and Dani Carvajal. The idea was to drip-feed old-timers Toni Kroos and Luka Modrić minutes, however both are having to start every game as he's down to the bare bones.

Ancelotti's masterclass is a contrast to Xavi's tough term at Barcelona. His future is under scrutiny as the reigning champions sit seven points behind the top two, the stadium isn't full, and the fans are unconvinced by the style of football. It's true that he's made some tactical and selection errors this season, and it's no longer the home of tiki-taka.

There are plenty of mitigating circumstances. The club is so broke they're having to depend on youth players, he had to take the team to the USA as the others are breaking up for Christmas to raise funds, and they don't have the advantage of the Camp Nou as it is undergoing redevelopment. The fact that he's qualified for the knock-out stages of the Champions League takes all the pressure off him and he should have a free pass for the season.

We're not quite at the turn just yet; it would be just if Girona took the unofficial mid-season title, but I still think Atletico are the team with the endurance as Real battle with injuries and Barcelona struggle with the financial constraints.