IMF matches central government's optimism and improves Spain's growth forecast to 2.9% for this year

Spain's economic growth will continue to outpace the rest of Europe's this year despite the impact of the tariffs imposed by the United States. Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) back the Spanish government's calculations, raising its gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.9%. This forecast even exceeds the optimistic calculations from senior government ministers who, a few weeks ago, raised their forecast to 2.7% for this year as a basis for the country's 2026 general budget.

According to the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) report published on Tuesday, the Spanish economy will grow the most among the eurozone countries. Spain will almost triple the average growth rate of the eurozone member countries (1.2%), despite the fact that the IMF has also revised its figures upwards by two-tenths of a percentage point. Countries such as Germany and even France continue to hinder further growth in the eurozone, with GDP growth of only 0.2% and 0.7% respectively for 2025.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Washington-based organisation expects Spain to grow two-tenths of a percentage point more than expected, reaching 2%, doubling the eurozone's growth rate, which will remain at 1% next year. In its report, the IMF indicates that exports of goods to the US from the main European economies, particularly Germany, Spain and the UK, "have decreased significantly". However, experts reveal that this slump has been offset by total eurozone exports, "supported by increased trade flows within the EU".

As for inflation, Spain will close the year with a price level of 2.4%, half a point lower than last year but still above the 2% target set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Neighbouring countries will have lower rates than Spain's and, on average, inflation in the eurozone will close at 2.1%, before falling to 1.9% next year.

With this data on the table, the Spanish government celebrated the fact that, for the second consecutive year, Spain "continues to lead the growth of the major economies in a context of geopolitical and trade uncertainty".

China and the United States will suffer less than expected from the consequences of the trade war. According to the IMF, the US will grow one-tenth of a percentage point more than estimated in the forecasts of three months ago, both for this year and the next, reaching 2% and 2.1% respectively. China, meanwhile, will be left with the same growth rate of 4.8% and 4.2% for 2025 and 2026, as forecast in July.

Furthermore, on Monday the IMF also warned in its Global Financial Stability Report that financial markets are "underestimating existing geopolitical, trade and fiscal risks", which could lead to a "sudden correction" in asset valuations.

"This apparent calm masks a certain degree of complacency.[..] Markets appear to have played down the potential effects of tariffs on growth and inflation, as well as other, potentially adverse, developments," said the institution in a statement published late Monday.

It noted that stock market assets have continued to appreciate despite the identified vulnerabilities and risks, which remain at "elevated" levels. It also warned that a "sudden correction" could be exacerbated by the current "unusual asset correlations" and lead to a slowdown in deleveraging or market tensions.