The big mystery about the electricity bill: will it go up or down next year?

The electricity bill remains a major burden for Spanish families. The average annual cost, depending on the contracted power and consumption, can vary between 700 and 1,000 euros. For companies and industries, it is also a key cost item. For this reason, all the movements that take place have a direct impact. Although in the last few weeks there are doubts about what can really happen from 1 January. An uncertainty that the government has sown by assuring that the whole bill will be cheaper in 2026. This situation would occur under specific conditions that no one can be sure of.

To understand what is happening with electricity bills, you need to take into account their breakdown – as well as the type of contract (whether it is in the free market or the regulated market) – and who can intervene in each component. Regarding the variable part, the cost of energy, that is, what electricity costs on the wholesale market, is the key, and it changes depending on how much electricity is used. Simple. This affects those on the regulated tariff (PVPC) the most, although it is also passed on to those who negotiate their bill with their electricity supplier.

Then there is a fixed component, tolls and charges - which can account for between 25–35 per cent of the total, depending on the type of contract. This is set by the national commission for markets and competition (CNMC) and the government, respectively, and both bodies have proposed increasing them for next year. This means that with the same contracted capacity and similar electricity consumption, a user will end up paying more.

Specifically, the CNMC has proposed a 4.1 per cent increase in electricity tolls for the system as a whole. The money collected, which next year will increase by around 300 million euros compared to the previous year, is used to improve the electricity networks. This includes both the transmission, which is controlled by Red Eléctrica, and the distribution, which is in the hands of several companies, although Iberdrola, Endesa and Naturgy are the main ones in charge.

For its part, the ministry for ecological transition has launched a proposed increase of more than ten per cent in charges. This money will be used to finance some electricity production technologies, including certain types of renewables. Another part goes to reduce the debt generated by the system itself, and part of the money collected is also used to subsidise non-mainland systems.

Finally, there are the taxes on electricity and VAT, to which must be added the tax on electricity production, which, although it is directed at companies, is passed on to consumers. To all this must be added the companies' own marketing margin for the services provided.

Last week, sources from the ministry for ecological transition conveyed the idea that, thanks to the fact that wholesale prices in the electricity market will be cheaper than in 2025, the final bill will be lower. But this is simply based on future market projections - a system that does not understand setbacks or regulatory changes.

In other words, unless the wholesale price falls substantially, the only certainty for the moment is a rise in the fixed part of the bill, which will eventually have an impact on the overall bill. It should also be borne in mind that Red Eléctrica continues to operate the grid in "reinforced mode" to avoid blackouts, and this means an increase in the price. And, on this point, no one from the system operator has confirmed when it will end.