US Climate Prediction Centre confirms formation of 'El Niño' earlier than expected: this is how it could affect Spain

It is now official. The US Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) confirmed a few days ago the worst-case scenario; El Niño - one of the phenomena that changes the earth's climate - is already here, and even earlier than expected.

"It is already officially present in the eastern equatorial Pacific," according to the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And Spanish weather agency Aemet has now warned that it will probably even get stronger in the coming months. "This is a matter of interest because of its repercussions on the global climate," it added.

"It has arrived earlier than initially shown by the calculations of many forecasting centres. Usually the warming waters of the Equatorial Pacific end up spawning El Niño in late summer or early autumn. This 2023 has already arrived in full force in the middle of spring," popular meteorologist Mario Picazo said in his blog.

As Picazo pointed out, unlike other El Niño phenomena that have formed since oceanic records have become more precise, this one in 2023 arrives "surrounded by positive water temperature anomalies in many regions".

Spain is no stranger to this phenomenon, Aemet said: "The sea waters surrounding Spain are, as a whole, warmer than usual for this time of year. At points in the Mediterranean and the Canary Islands they are between 2.5 and 3.5 degrees above normal; at points in the Cantabrian Sea the difference exceeds four degrees," the agency reported on Tuesday, 13 June.

And this is just an indicator of what is to come, as El Niño often causes a cascade of strange atmospheric and oceanic events all over the world. The strongest impacts tend to occur in the regions bordering the Pacific, so that the American continent or areas of Oceania or southeast Asia are the most affected, Picazo added.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon characterised by fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern part of the Pacific. It is associated with changes in the atmosphere, which is why it has a great influence on climate conditions in various parts of the planet, including Europe. It is feared that a further rise in temperatures this summer could wreak real havoc internationally.