Asteroid 2024 YR4: risk of collision with Earth increased

The current figure is the highest probability to date: 3.1% according to the latest data published by Nasa

A.N.

Friday, 21 February 2025, 17:55

Nasa's Centre for Near Earth-Object Studies (CNEOS) has raised the risk of collision between the 2024 YR4 asteroid and the Earth from 1.3% to 3.1%. The observation has launched an unprecedented UN report, which activated the two asteroid response groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). The protocol was created in 2013, but has not been activated until now.

The asteroid, which has been making headlines recently, was discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, on 27 December last year, hence the name. In February, the probability of a collision with the Earth rose to 3.1%, exceeding the 3% calculated in 2004 for the asteroid Apophis. As in the case of Apophis, where the risk eventually dropped to zero, the European Space Agency (ESA) expects that the impact probability of 2024 YR4 will also fall with time. "This numerical value should evolve in the coming weeks, as more observations are published, marking an increase followed by a decrease, if this asteroid follows the pattern of previous discoveries," said ESA in their blog.

It is estimated that 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 100 metres across and is currently 43 million kilometres away. It is classified at level 3 on the Turin impact risk scale. Its orbit around the Sun is elongated (eccentric) and, according to official information, it is moving away from the Earth almost in a straight line, so it is difficult to determine its precise orbit.

Over the next few months, the asteroid will begin to fade from the Earth's view. During this time, ESA will coordinate observations of the asteroid with increasingly powerful telescopes, including the use of the European southern observatory's very large telescope in Chile to collect as much data as possible.

Nevertheless, experts send a reassuring message, evaluating that, in the event of an impact with the Earth, the damage would be local. "The Tunguska event, which occurred in 1908, is thought to have been caused by an asteroid 60 metres in diameter, which devastated some 2,000 square kilometres of forest," said José María Madiedo of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (IAA-CSIC). "In Google Earth, it's easy to draw a circle that covers an area of that size, which is roughly half the area of an average-sized Spanish province," he said.

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