Hands off

One wonders, incidentally, why the boffs in DC didn't predict that Spain would have a busy summer tourist season back in April: it's not much of a forecast when you're already halfway through the period concerned. I can tell you we're likely to have a storm sometime soon if it's pouring down with rain, thundering and lightning outside.

The IMF's latest projection is 0.5% higher than the Spanish government's and, if it proves correct, means that Spain will grow at more than twice the rate of the eurozone in 2023. Uncertainty following last weekend's election is unlikely to impact this predicted growth, which is also the reason why Pedro Sánchez's caretaking government can't claim credit for it: tourism was and continues to be the driving force.

The fund's latest forecast could be read as emphasising what happens when politicians leave their tourism sector or perhaps even their entire economy more-or-less alone. The ultimate counter-example was provided by the pandemic, during which governments' influence on travel and tourism was obvious - but that wasn't their fault, of course, it was entirely Covid's (it wasn't even a combination of the two). When economic predictions and realities are rosy, it's because the government is a stellar steward of the economy, guiding it along with a firm and steady hand; when they're not so rosy, it's because of factors beyond the government's control. It's never the other way around, oddly.

Statistics from 2015 and 2016 also indicate that Spain's GDP expansion, and tourism as a percentage of that expansion, aren't overly sensitive to political battles or vacuums. In 2015, tourism accounted for 11.1% of Spain's GDP, which grew at 3.2% - almost twice the pace of the eurozone. In 2016 there was hardly any fluctuation in either statistic: 11.3% and, again, 3.2%. But for most of 2016 (313 days) Spain had no functioning government, after the previous year's general election failed to give any party a majority - which is exactly what happened on Sunday.

Belgium provides another illuminating example. Between 2010 and 2011, the country went for a record-breaking 589 days without a government, following a general election that gave no party more than 20% of the vote. But during that period, the Belgian economy outperformed those of the UK, Germany, France and the eurozone as a whole. Perhaps the more hands-off the supposed economic stewards are, the better it is for a country's economy.