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Ignacio Lillo
Malaga
Tuesday, 17 September 2024, 08:40
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This is not turning out to be the 'Indian summer' September that many people in Malaga and on the Costa del Sol had hoped for, as those in previous years were. Falling temperatures (cool, but not cold) had already arrived at the end of last week, and this week they will follow the same trend.
Maximum temperatures will be up to 3C lower than normal for this time of year. Daytime highs will not exceed 25C throughout the week, while nighttime lows will be around 20 to 22 degrees. Only on Sunday will the temperatures tend to recover a little (27C), but with cloudy skies.
However, the highlight will be the possibility of showers arriving in the province, especially towards the end of the week. For several days now, the weather models have been pointing to the possibility of heavy rain on the Mediterranean coast, although this refers mainly to the Levante area and Catalonia. This will be due to the arrival on the scene of a "retrograde trough", as defined by local Malaga weather expert, José Luis Escudero.
"A strong anticyclonic block is forming over the British Isles and Scandinavia, bringing with it a trough moving from east to west. Later in the day, a 'Dana' depression is expected to form over the northern part of the Spanish mainland, but its location is not yet clear".
However, the strong anticyclonic blockade will cause the storms to come from east to west; while the subsequent isolated high level depression may collaterally affect the province.
"It may affect some areas, but I don't expect too much. These are the typical storms of this time of year, as happened a few days ago, which may cause some showers but nothing major, unless there is a last-minute surprise". If they do occur, showers will be more likely on the coast than inland. As of yesterday, Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) gave a probability of 65 to 70% for rain between Thursday and Saturday in Malaga city.
Aemet, meanwhile, has issued an information note in view of the arrival of "rain and storms in large areas of the mainland". Although from Wednesday it will begin to affect the Valencian region and Catalonia, as well as Teruel and the Pyrenees, the arrival in Malaga province (if it happens) would be on Thursday.
Specifically, for that day, rain and thunderstorms are expected to extend over a large part of the Spanish mainland, more likely during the afternoon. As for Friday and Saturday, the most likely scenario is that it will rain in the northern half, centre and east of the country, and the storms could be accompanied by hail. On Sunday, some weather stability is expected to return.
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