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In the midst of spring, winter refuses to leave Spain. A storm originating off the Galician coast will, from Thursday, leave "widespread and persistent" rain throughout Andalucía, strong gusts of wind and a drop in both maximum and minimum temperatures, the state weather agency (Aemet) has warned. Malaga will not escape this scenario, dominated by instability. At the moment, the forecast puts the probability of rain in the province at 90% from Thursday onwards. The forecast predicts that the weather will not improve throughout the weekend, which will be wet. If it comes true, it will be the best news for reservoirs in need of generous accumulations to top up the critically low levels as the drought crisis continues.
However, there are still days left to be able to fine-tune the forecast and be able to know the exact magnitude of this storm and its effects on Malaga. "In order for Andalucía and the province to receive more accumulated rainfall, the two main storms expected on Thursday and Saturday would have to be located at Cape San Vicente or on the tip of Portugal. With the weather models updated today, the one on Thursday is located a little above the tip of Portugal and the one expected on Saturday above Galicia, although it would also affect us, even more curiously", explained José Luis Escudero in his SUR blog 'Tormentas y Rayos' (storms and lighting). The forecasts of the local weather expert predict between 30 and 60mm falling in the province.
The Meteored portal agrees with this prediction: "A new week of ups and downs in the weather is on the horizon, which will also be quite abrupt. We will have periods of clear skies and other stormy periods in which rain and wind will be the main feature. The novelty lies in the location of the storms, almost all of which will be very close to the Spanish mainland", the weather portal stressed. "An anticyclonic blockade in Scandinavia will allow them to get closer, so we could be talking about very heavy rainfall in some regions", it added.
Samuel Biener, researcher and disseminator of Climatology and editor of Meteored pointed out that Thursday will be the day that marks the turning point. "On that day, a cold storm will move over the Galicia area, also directing a river of humidity towards the west of the peninsula. As a result, an active front will leave heavy rain in the western half of the country, quickly crossing to the east and reaching the Mediterranean in the late hours of the day, where rain will also happen," he said.
The Aemet forecast is along the same lines: "A low pressure system is expected to pass over the Spanish mainland and the Balearic Islands, with associated fronts. Despite the uncertainty as to its position and depth, a predominance of cloudy or overcast skies and widespread rainfall is expected," the state Met Office stated on its website.
Temperatures, meanwhile, will also suffer. "They will be lower than normal in a large part of the country. They will be between 1 and 3C below the average for the time of the year in the west and interior of the Spanish mainland. On the Cantabrian and Mediterranean coasts, temperatures will be in line with normal values; on the islands they will be even milder than those expected at this time of year, up to 1C. It may not sound like much, but it will be noticeable", Meteored pointed out.
In the case of Malaga, Aemet forecasts that the mercury will hover between 10-12C minimum and 17-18 degrees maximum between Thursday and Sunday. The wind will also blow strongly on Thursday with gusts of 25 kilometres per hour forecast.
On Saturday, the weather instability will continue. Aemet forecasts a 95% chance of rain in Malaga city. "An unstable situation is likely to continue, with the passage of fronts and very cloudy skies over the Spanish mainland and the Balearic Islands. Widespread rainfall is expected on the Atlantic and Cantabrian slopes and in the upper and middle Ebro. They are less likely, but weaker showers are not ruled out in the Mediterranean area", according to the state agency. On Sunday, there is a 75% chance of umbrellas being needed in Malaga. In addition, the wind will blow on that day, with gusts of 20 kilometres.
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