Aemet issues rare special warning for very heavy and persistent rain in Spain this week

Spain's state meteorological agency (Aemet) is forecasting a progressive increase in weather instability, which will last throughout the week. In fact, it has issued a special warning for "heavy or very heavy and persistent rain" until at least Thursday 6 March, with a probability of between 40 and 70%.

For this Monday, Aemet estimates that the highest accumulations will be recorded on the Costa del Sol and around the Gulf of Cadiz and Strait of Gibraltar, as well as in the south of Tarragona area and across the Valencia region, where rainfall may be locally heavy, without ruling out very heavy and persistent downpours. In the Valencia region it could exceed 100mm in 12 hours. In Andalucía, Aemet also points out that the rain could be accompanied by thunderstorms and small hail stones, with rainfall of over 80mm expected in 12 hours in the Strait of Gibraltar area and on the Costa del Sol.

Specifically, Aemet has activated the amber warning for the regions of Costa del Sol, Malaga city and Guadalhorce valley from midnight on Sunday until 2pm this Monday. Accumulated rainfall of 25mm in one hour and 80 l/m2 in 12 hours is expected, especially in the western part of the province.

On Tuesday, the heaviest accumulations will be concentrated in the eastern third of the Spanish mainland, particularly in the provinces of Tarragona, Castellón and Valencia, without ruling out the possibility that they may extend inland, north of Alicante or affect the Strait of Gibraltar and the Costa del Sol again. But, above all, Aemet highlights the persistence of this rainfall, with accumulated amounts reaching 60mm in 12 hours.

On Wednesday and Thursday, the situation of instability will continue and it is most likely that the highest accumulations will be recorded on the Mediterranean coast and in the Alboran Sea area (off the south coast of Spain), up to the Strait of Gibraltar. The areas most affected would again be the south of Tarragona, Castellón, Valencia, Alicante, Murcia and Almeria on Wednesday, extending on Thursday to the Costa del Sol and the area of the Strait of Gibraltar.

Although with a high degree of uncertainty, Aemet forecasts that instability will continue from Friday onwards, indicating that the most affected areas will be the northeast of the Spanish mainland, the Central System and the Gulf of Cadiz, where rainfall will again be locally heavy and persistent. The Canary Islands will also be affected by heavy rainfall over the next few days.