Storm Óscar: When will it arrive and how much rain will it leave in Malaga and on the Costa del Sol?

The meteorological summer is still turbulent in Spain. More than 30 provinces of 13 regions (including Cordoba, Granada and Jaén in Andalucía) were at risk on Monday due to rains and storms in the prelude to a more adverse episode, the arrival of a new storm. Christened with the name Ócsar, it is expected to leave heavy rainfall and strong winds in its wake in many parts of the country, although for now the different weather models do not agree on the impact it could have on the Costa del Sol and Malaga province.

Spain's state weather agency, Aemet, said storm Óscar will enter today (Tuesday, 6 June) with successive small lows within a large storm cell and will first impact the islands. One of the smaller storms will then become more intense as it moves onto the mainland, resulting in this week's forecast of stormy weather across much of Spain.

On the Costa del Sol Aemet is predicting a 95% chance of rain for Malaga city, especially in the early hours of Wednesday. There will then be a 55-75% chance of downpours from Thursday through to Friday afternoon. The weather seems to stabilise in time for the weekend, with the possibility of showers decreasing to 5%. The mercury is expected to reach a maximum of 28C , and a minimum of 20 degrees.

Local Malaga meteorology expert, José Luis Escudero, in his SUR blog Tormentas y Rayos (storms and lightning) said: "This is a very unusual cell for a meteorological summer, as it is has formed at such a low latitude and with such intensity".

He said the storm's impact on Andalucía is still not clear: "Óscar will bring with it a weather front and lines of instability, which will affect the region unevenly. In fact, there are discrepancies between the different models".

While the European model predicted "a good watering in the province of Malaga", the American model forecasts less, and the Canadian one has more water dumped in the Axarquia area.