Andalucía aspires to reach ten million inhabitants by 2050

If it maintains its current rate of growth, Andalucía will reach ten million inhabitants by 2050. The southern region of the country is already not only the most populated in Spain, but also has more inhabitants than 13 of the 27 countries of the EU, among them Ireland and Denmark.

The Andalusian government (Junta) aspires to maintain this rate of growth, but at the same time there is concern about the current trend, which concentrates most of the population in just 30 municipalities, all located on the coast and in the Guadalquivir valley. Some 40.2% of the 8.6 million people in Andalucía live in municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants, and another 45.2% in medium-sized towns of between 10,000 and 100,000 inhabitants.

Regional minister José Antonio Nieto sees this as an opportunity to promote life in smaller municipalities and unload some of the burden on big cities and their local councils, which struggle with the ever-increasing population.

Following provincial capitals, metropolitan areas and medium-sized cities, come Andalucía's 337 rural municipalities, where only 8.9% of the regional population lives. These emptying small towns, villages and mountain areas offer "an enviable quality of life, good infrastructure and services", as Nieto explained. The Junta, however, must focus on creating job opportunities in these areas, because that is what mostly attracts people.

To combat this reduction in population, the Junta has approved a strategic plan for the 2025-2030 period, the aim of which is to reach the abovementioned ten million inhabitants but through sustainable promotion of migratory balance, improvements in health and lifestyle and birth rate increase.

The priorities set include reproductive support, family reconciliation, improved public services and infrastructure, equal opportunities, digitalisation, employment, industry and mining, entrepreneurship, innovation and sustainable development, as well as tax measures for rural housing to draw people to rural areas.

The first advantage that Andalucía has is that it doesn't suffer from generalised depopulation. Although the vegetative balance is negative (fewer people are born than die), it continues to grow thanks to immigration. However, this growth has slowed down. The forecast is that by 2040 this growth will stagnate and that by 2070 Andalucía could lose 800,000 inhabitants.

The strategy divides municipalities into four categories according to the priority for action, taking into account population density, growth rates, ageing and dependency rates, migration rate, average age, male ratio, unemployment rate, average income and characteristics such as distance and altitude or land use.

Applying these indicators, 78 municipalities were identified as high-priority. The objective for these is to stop 80% of the depopulation of the last ten years. Almost half of these municipalities are concentrated in Granada (30) and Almeria (22). The rest are divided between Malaga (eight), Cordoba (seven), Huelva and Jaén (five in each province) and Seville (one). The plan also identifies a further 221 medium-priority and 181 low-priority municipalities.

In total, 480 municipalities require action against depopulation - 61% of the 785 municipalities in Andalucía. The criteria will be reviewed every year to determine the policies to be applied in each municipality.

The plan aims to improve the provision of services. Although 94% of the Andalusian population lives less than 25 minutes from a motorway and 98% less than 45 minutes, the strategy includes policies to bring these key roads even closer to rural areas.

The aim is for 97% of the population to be within 30 minutes of a high-capacity road, a primary care centre, an emergency centre, a hospital, a secondary school, a vocational training centre; a maximum of 50 minutes from a university; 35 minutes from a social services centre; and 40 minutes from a women's centre.