Aemet warns of possible 'Dana' bringing 'heavy rain' to these parts of Spain

There is another twist in the meteorological script for the weather on the way to Spain this week. "From Thursday onwards we are likely to be affected by a retrograde trough over the eastern part of the Spanish mainland. Some models give it a lot of importance and others do not. The area where it could rain the most would be in the east, as has become the norm. Some weather models also give rainfall in eastern Andalucía," highlighted local Malaga weather expert José Luis Escudero in his SUR blog 'Tormentas y rayos'. Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) agrees with this forecast: "In the second half of this week, a 'Dana' will probably bring precipitation to areas of the eastern half of Andalucía," Aemet warned on its X social media account.

For now, Aemet indicates that this change in the weather could be accentuated on Thursday. On that day, the state agency forecasts for Andalucía "cloudy skies will prevail with showers accompanied by storms, more likely and intense in the eastern half and in the afternoon". Temperatures will fall and light to moderate easterly winds are expected on the Mediterranean coast. This instability will last at least until Sunday.

"From Wednesday onwards, a major weather change is expected due to an atmospheric blockade over the British Isles. This high pressure system will favour the entry of easterly winds over Spain, laden with moisture. With the sea temperature still at around 25C, this could cause heavy rain in Mediterranean areas. In addition, a trough of cold air of retrograde evolution could remain over the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, and even isolate, giving rise to a possible 'Dana' storm," explained the specialised portal Meteored.

Which areas could be most affected? Samuel Biener, researcher, climatology disseminator and editor of Meteored, pointed out that the European weather model foresees the highest accumulated rainfall in the Valencian Community, "where it could exceed 100-200mm", he revealed. Andalucía would also be on the map, according to this expert. "The greatest instability is expected between Thursday and Sunday morning, although the duration of the episode will depend on the evolution of the retrograde trough, which is still uncertain. The heaviest rainfall could occur in the Balearic Islands (especially in the Pitiusas and the south of Mallorca), Valencia, Catalonia, Murcia, eastern and southern Andalucía, Teruel and eastern Castile-La Mancha. On Thursday, storms could also be recorded in the interior and mountainous areas of the centre and east of the mainland," he concluded.

In Malaga province, Aemet forecasts a 100% probability of rain on Friday in the capital of the Costa del Sol as well as in Vélez-Málaga, Ronda, Antequera and Marbella.