This is why tourism 'will cease to be the great driving force of the economy' in Spain, according to industry body

Tourism has peaked in Spain. The sector's growth has been so intense since the end of the pandemic, having contributed 53% of the total growth of the economy from 2021 to 2024, that the "normalisation" of the growth rates recorded nowadays means a "clear slowdown", as deputy president of Exceltur employers' association Óscar Perelli explained during a press conference in Madrid. Exceltur presented its forecasts during the meeting: a 2.8% tourism GDP growth by the end of 2025.

The sector is expected to have generated 219 billion euros in 2025, at a rate similar to the growth of the Spanish economy as a whole, which is estimated to be 2.7%. Tourism accounts for 13.1% of GDP - the highest in the historical series. Excluding the effect of prices, the real gain amounts to more than 4.8 billion euros.

Undoubtedly, the high prices recorded by the sector as a whole in recent years, driven by soaring demand, have led many tourists to stop travelling or to at least not do it more often. As an example, the latest data from the national institute of statistics reveals that the average hotel room in August was 156 euros per night, 6% more than last year and 42% more than in 2019, before the pandemic broke out.

Perelli said that prices are a "market factor" and that if tourists feel that they are higher than they should be for the product offered, "they will stop purchasing it". He added that there has been a significant investment in improving hotels and tourism products in the last two year. Although this has been "positively" received, companies that do not provide value for money "will be forced to lower prices".

The country's growth was linked to tourism and immigration in 2024, as The Economist stated last year. The prestigious British newspaper highlighted Spain's strong economic growth thanks to high levels of immigration and the arrival of 94 million visitors to a country of 48 million inhabitants.

The slowdown in tourism is noticeable in employment, where the rate of job creation is at 2.1%, below the 2.7% increase in employment in the country as a whole. The quality of employment, on the other hand, has improved. The vast majority of new contracts (92.6%) are permanent and 65% are full-time. In addition, Exceltur points out that the wage increase in the various branches of tourism is 3.7% - one point higher than average inflation.

For this reason, Exceltur is unsure of the reasons behind the very high level of absenteeism in the sector, which is close to 8%. In other words, of the approximately 3 million employees in the tourism branches, 200,000 do not show up for work in the morning. "This is a challenge for the whole economy, but especially for the tourism sector," Perelli said.