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Rocío Mendoza
Madrid
Tuesday, 19 November 2024, 20:50
Rising Mediterranean sea levels due to global warming will displace up to 20 million people across the popular holiday destination region by the end of this century, according to new research.
The Mediterranean and its vulnerability to the threat of climate change was a hot topic at the start of the second week of the 29th Climate Summit in Baku in Azerbaijan. Expert group MedECC, an independent network of scientists, together with the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), representing Mediterranean countries such as Spain, presented a study compiling the latest available data on the dangers that will shape the future of what is now the world's leading tourist destination. Heat and rising sea levels will be the most serious problems, according to their findings.
Coordinated by Carmen Llasat, professor of applied physics at the University of Barcelona, 55 authors from 17 countries exposed all the threats that justify the qualification of this region of the world as a "hotspot of global warming".
During the presentation, Inés Durate, UfM energy officer, said: "It is time to understand that the Mediterranean as we know it could cease to exist if our efforts to combat climate change remain insufficient".
The presented study analyses each future threat, taking as a starting point the first Mediterranean assessment report, the first regional scientific report on climate change and environmental degradation carried out in this area, and provides solutions for each of them.
Flooding due to sea level rise during this century is perhaps the factor that will require the greatest prevention work for people living in Mediterranean countries.
Provided that trends in warming, emissions and the rate of global ocean level rise continue as they have been, MedECC experts estimate that up to 20 million people across the region could be permanently displaced by the end of this century.
Today, one third of the population of the Mediterranean region lives in close proximity to the sea and depends on its infrastructures and economic activities, which are also located in these areas. Far from decreasing, coastal populations are projected to increase faster than inland populations, leaving more people exposed to the dangers of climate change.
20 Airports
This is the number of airports considered to be at high risk of flooding, three of which are located in the Mediterranean basin.
This trend will put transport networks and cultural heritage at "high risk". For example, the study pointed out that the Mediterranean region is already home to three of the 20 airports in the world most at risk from coastal flooding.
The current rate of sea level rise in the Mediterranean is 2.8 millimetres per year, which is double the 20th century average. By the end of the 21st century, projections suggest that the average sea level could rise by one metre. "The Mediterranean coast is one of the regions of the world most likely to experience severe flooding, the impact of which will be exacerbated by climate change and population growth along the coast," the study found.
Extreme sea level events, which occur once every 100 years, are likely to increase in frequency by at least 10% by 2050 and 22% by 2100. Extremes will become worse. Torrential rains, such as those experienced during the 'Dana' weather events, will increase in some regions of the northern Mediterranean, however, the overall precipitation balance for the year will be negative, worsening droughts.
"Both coastal flood protection and erosion management often rely on high-cost engineering solutions and generally do not take into account future sea level rise values, which could mean that their effectiveness is limited in the long term," said the experts in assessing how to adapt to the realities they envisage for the year 2100.
This rise in water levels is closely linked to rising sea temperatures. While marine heat waves have already increased in frequency and duration over the last decades by 40% and 15% respectively, projections show that this progression will increase further during the century.
This leads to an increase in carbon emissions (because the seas become less efficient at 'cleaning' the air of CO2 the warmer they get) and will favour the emergence of invasive species, which will have socio-economic and ecological consequences. Corals, sponges and molluscs have experienced massive die-offs due to rising water temperature, a phenomenon that will continue to worsen in the future.
The sea is one of the most plastic-polluted areas in the world. Plastics account for up to 82% of visible litter, 95-100% of all floating marine litter and more than 50% of all litter on the sea floor. By 2040, it is estimated that discharges of plastics into the sea will double if plastic production continues to increase at a rate of 4% and if plastic waste management does not radically improve.
Seven degrees heating
Temperature increases compared to pre-industrial times could exceed five degrees by the end of the 21st century under a high emissions scenario, but with peaks of seven degrees higher in summer, with serious implications for health and freshwater supplies.
Freshwater availability in the region will also be conditioned by changes in global temperatures. While the world is heading towards a global warming of three degrees above pre-industrial average global temperatures, the rate at which this is happening in the Mediterranean is much faster and could be set to exceed 5.5 degrees of warming by the end of the 21st century.
So far, the average temperature has already risen by more than 1.5 degrees; by 2050 it is expected to rise by 2.3 degrees to 3.6 degrees if emissions remain as high as they are today. "This rise will be particularly high in summer, with maximum temperatures that may reach more than seven degrees above those typical at the beginning of the last century, leading to, among other things, very serious health impacts," the experts said in their presentation.
As the global temperature increases, limits will become tighter and resources such as freshwater will become less. "The Mediterranean region is facing notable peaks in water demand, a phenomenon that is expected to intensify in the coming years due to climate change, agricultural practices, and increasing population and tourism in coastal areas," the experts added.
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