Monday, 22 January 2024, 12:35
"It won't rain any more for the rest of January, that's for sure". That is the depressing forecast of the head of the Aemet weather agency in Malaga, Jesús Riesco, in view of the scenario that is coming tomorrow to the province, when a powerful anticyclone, accompanied by a mass of warm air, will bring above-normal temperatures for January. It will also bring a return to dry weather, just when rain should be falling with greater intensity.
In addition, it is a warm mass that will build, since it will be present for several days and continue warming up. The result is that from tomorrow, Tuesday 23 January , the thermometers will once again reach over 20C in Malaga city and along the Costa del Sol the coast, when, according to the historical data, the normal temperature is 17.4C at this time of year.
This situation will also manifest itself at night, with minimum temperatures rising from an average of 8C to between 12 and 14 from Wednesday onwards. "This is not normal, but unfortunately it is becoming more and more normal... Every year we break several record highs and the trend is for temperatures to rise," warned the meteorologist.
But away from the coast, where to a certain extent it is usual for temperatures to be mild even in the middle of winter, in inland Malaga province this week it will be like an early spring. Therefore, in Antequera from Tuesday onwards, the mercury is expected to be above 20C (the normal temperature is 13.6 degrees). At night it will rise from 3C to 6 degrees, at first, and then to 9-10C (the average for January is only 3 degrees).
All this comes in historically one of the rainiest months of the year (along with November and December) but it has left very little, only a quarter of normal in the Malaga Airport rain gauge (Aemet's official one in the province for statistical purposes). "It's a disaster, it's beginning to be very worrying, we end the traditional three months with the most rain with a tremendous deficit", admitted Riesco.
Hopes are now pinned on what happens in February, which is another traditionally wet month, although this one is already off to a bad start. The first and second weeks will be drier and warmer than normal, and this is what seasonal models are predicting for the whole of the first half of February.
José Luis Escudero, expert in Malaga meteorology and head of the SUR blog Tormentas y Rayos (Storms and Lightning), agrees that the highlight of the end of the month will be this powerful warm anticyclone, located just above the Spanish mainland. Although in Malaga city the easterly breezes may prevent a new temperature record from being reached, he warned that if the 'terral' wind arrives on any of these days, the historic maximum will be beaten, which in Malaga is 26.8C degrees in January and 30 degrees in February.
Escudero emphasised that this week the current records for absolute maximum temperatures in Seville (24.2C in 1959) and Cordoba (22.9C in 2007) could topple.
The Malaga expert also points to a similar situation in other parts of the inland areas of Spain where, at least until the beginning of February, the anticyclonic situation will be maintained. "It may then change radically and the storms may arrive, but the first two weeks of February are also expected to be dry and warmer than normal".
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