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Ignacio Lillo
Malaga
Monday, 23 September 2024, 10:56
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Summers on the Costa del Sol and wider Malaga province are now up to 5C hotter than they were 50 years ago, according to the latest analysis of the data.
Malaga researcher José Luis Escudero, head of the SUR blog Tormentas y Rayos (storms and lightning), calculated the average temperatures from past summers, between the months of June, July and August. To do this, he used official data published by Spain's state weather agency (Aemet), measured at Malaga Airport's weather station (which is the official statistical reference point) over the past 50 years: from 1974 to 2024.
22.7C
was the average temperature in 1977, the coolest summer in the past 50 years
The results of his study are worrying as they show how much the mercury has risen over the past five decades in Malaga city. Specifically, the difference between the coolest summer in the past 50 years (1977, with 22.7 degrees), and the hottest, which was last year (2023, with 27.7), is five degrees.
Each decade has been worse than the previous one, the data shows. If this progression continues, the medium-term future of the summer months in Malaga and the Costa del Sol is not exactly rosy, neither for inhabitants nor for the millions of tourists who visit the province each year.
If the most extreme years (1977 and 2023) are avoided, the net rise from the first to the last would be 3.3C (from 23.4 degrees in 1974 to 26.7 in 2024). In the 1970s and 1980s, the average temperature was around 23 to 24 degrees; in the 1990s, 24 to 25; and in the 21st century, 25, 26 and even well above 27 for the first time.
Meanwhile, Aemet measured the patterns of average summer temperatures in the province using data from various thermometers and since 1961. In this case, although the rise is also notable, it is not as drastic as the situation in Malaga city. The variability is very high, with years recording below 21 and 22 degrees, in the 1970s, and others of up to 26.5 degrees (2023), although with large ups and downs.
27.7C
was the average temperature of the hottest summer in history, which was last year (2023).
"The temperature is clearly on an upward trend," said Jesús Riesco, director of the Aemet weather centre in Malaga. "And this is due to climate change. The temperature in this area of southern Spain since 1961, which is when the data began to be collected, has risen overall by around one and a half degrees, as an annual average. But in summer it is even more significant, and is very close to two degrees. This is statistically significant, it is clearly visible."
José Luis Escudero said he used official data from Aemet at Malaga Airport for his study. "It is clear that the temperature has been rising over the last 50 years," he said. The researcher pointed out the key factor is the night-time temperatures. In fact, last August saw the warmest average minimum temperature since records began (1941), with 24.5 degrees.
The researcher said he used to be sceptical about climate change, but now warned that the rise of temperatures is very rapid and noticeable, in just a very short period of time. "The sceptics argue that we have to analyse a longer period, going back to the Middle Ages... I'm talking about what I'm living: I'm going to be 65 and when I was young, I used to go to the summer cinema and my mother always told me to take a jacket because it was cooler at night," Escudero said.
In addition to the temperature, there is the wind chill factor, caused by the rise in humidity, which is dangerously close to "Caribbean conditions", although it is not quite there yet. "In recent years it has been confirmed that there has been an increase in both relative and absolute humidity in coastal areas," Riesco said.
This change is a consequence of an increase in the temperature of the sea water, together with the appearance of the easterly wind. "The relative humidity is very high, and as the atmosphere also has a high temperature, there is a lot of vapour in the air," Riesco said. This worrying increase has been observed especially in the past two summers, the current one and the previous one (2023).
This is supported by Escudero: "For me, this summer has been worse than the last one because the humidity has been horrible in August, and last year it was actually hotter".
In the light of this data, Escudero said that once this autumn is over, he will carry out the same analysis to compare the difference of temperatures across various seasons over the last half century. "My hypothesis is that there won't be so many differences, but when winter comes, I think it will be very noticeable".
Another consequence of warming temperatures has been less rainfall. Although Riesco pointed out that it is still not statistically significant, climate projections suggest that by the end of the century it will rain between 10 and 15%, and up to 20% less than it did at the start of the century.
The combination of high temperatures and low rainfall will result in an increasingly deserted land which is difficult to inhabit, especially, as we have seen, during the summer months, the peak tourism period.
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