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From 7am this morning until midnight, the new storm that is passing through the province of Malaga, which has been christened Martinho, has forced Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) to activate alerts.
In principle, this is a yellow level (slight risk) warning for accumulated rainfall of up to 4mm in twelve hours, and for downpours of up to 20mm in less than 60 minutes. The regions affected (in general terms, and this is important) are the western Costa del Sol, the Guadalhorce valley and the Serranía de Ronda.
However, this warning has peculiar characteristics and as such it must be qualified. Aemet insists that the risk of heavy downpours will be restricted, at least today, "to the western half of the province".
That is, heavy downpours are expected only in the area between the Serranía de Ronda, north of Marbella and Los Reales de Sierra Bermeja, north of Estepona. For this part of the province, the European weather model forecasts accumulated rainfall of between 20 and 30mm, as the storm practically skims the province to the west, hitting Cadiz, Seville and Huelva.
But not in the rest of the areas included in the same meteorological region. For the Guadalhorce, the European forecasts give 10-15mm; around 5-10mm in Malaga city and the greater metropolitan area; and somewhat less in the Axarquía.
Therefore, heavy rain is not expected in the areas most affected by last Tuesday's floods, where residents are looking to the sky with obvious concern, and have made numerous enquiries in this regard both to the meteorological agency and to this newspaper. Occasional showers may fall throughout the day, but initially they will not be anywhere near as heavy as the previous ones.
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