Malaga needs 12 billion euros in investment for its modernisation

Malaga province is starting to grow too big. The increase in population, in the city and on the Costa del Sol, is already affecting the lives of people, both those born here and those who have chosen it as a home. The province grew by 14,402 inhabitants last year, the vast majority of whom were born in other countries. The census now totals 1.79 million - not just an isolated jump, but rather a phenomenon that has been repeated with intensity on every page of the continuous population survey published by the national institute of statistics (INE) since the 2020 pandemic.

By 2030, the province is expected to reach the milestone of two million residents. With this forecast, in order for residents not to lose quality of services and for this to continue to be a sought-after destination for tourists, a lot of infrastructure is needed: high-capacity public transport and better roads; hospitals and works to obtain and treat water (desalination, storage, canalisation, purification and recycling for irrigation); leisure and sports facilities.

SUR has estimated that the four governmental institutions (central, regional, provincial and local) would need to make an investment of more than 12 billion euros to complete the necessary projects. This is only for the medium term.

Otherwise, the current problems of under-budgeting, saturation of the road and transport network, chronic drought, health waiting lists and lack of capacity in public services will only further strangle economic and social development. Below are the projects that are essential to guarantee Malaga's future.

The future coastal train is the biggest pending infrastructure and one of the most important projects. After the initial refusal and thanks to public pressure, Spain's ministry of transport, headed by minister Óscar Puente, has relaunched the project for the train from Nerja to Algeciras. The feasibility study, which is the first mandatory step, has just been awarded. Within 18 months, it will become clear where the tracks can be built and what the route will be.

The national association of construction companies - Seopan - has estimated that this will be one of the most profitable projects in Spain, with an investment of 6.7 billion euros.

However, the cost given is only for the route from Malaga to Algeciras. It will be exceeded if the plan is to add the Axarquía and reach Nerja. On the positive side, the EU and other investment funds could help finance it. In addition, the return on investment is expected to double the cost, reaching 12.5 billion euros.

The metro is the most efficient means of urban public transport. Last year, it reached an all-time record number of passengers: almost 18.26 million, an increase of 34.2%. The regional government is currently working on the extension to the Hospital Civil and the new Hospital Regional. But the network needs a wider extension beyond these stops, planned for around 2030. In June, the informative study will be awarded, which will have to establish the priorities: taking the metro to El Palo and Rincón de la Victoria; or extending it to Ciudad Jardín; or a branch to the TechPark.

If the decision is made to extend toward the eastern area (the most expensive option), the investment can be estimated based on existing figures. For instance, the planned budget for the extension of line 2 to the north, via Eugenio Gross, is around 200 million euros for 1.8 kilometres of tunnel and three stations. The initial project for line 3 had six kilometres and six stations. Therefore, for triple the distance and twice the number of stations, the budget would range from 400 million euros (with above-ground sections) to 600 million euros if fully underground.

The ministry of transport is making progress, albeit at a slow pace, on one of the few projects that has a budget and a near horizon: the widening of the MA-20 dual carriageway between Malaga and Torremolinos from two to three lanes in each direction, with an estimated investment of 190 million euros. The already approved technical project includes improvement works along nine kilometres.

The ministry has said that the section suffers congestion problems due to heavy traffic, with an average daily traffic figure (ADT) of more than 120,000 vehicles. Therefore, in addition to widening the carriageways, a 1.5-kilometre bypass will be built, with a new viaduct over the Guadalhorce river, upstream of the current one (940 metres).

Access to the city from the the east side of Malaga has become an ordeal due to the demographic growth of the Axarquía, from Rincón de la Victoria to Vélez-Málaga. A day without accidents and subsequent traffic jams is a rarity. The ministry of transport has launched a study of alternatives to resolve the issue. Two options are being considered, one of which concerns the implementation of a third lane on the Rincón bypass, which would be faster and cheaper, although in a few years it would be superseded.

The second proposal is the so-called Vía Perimetral, which has already been analysed by Malaga consultancy ARCS, as commissioned by the city council. Although there are various route options, the most likely would be 27 kilometres long, with a budget of around 550 million euros. Given the difficulty of carrying it out with public funds (the EU is reluctant to finance roads), the same study proposes making it a motorway, with various toll options (totally free, subsidised, mixed system or pay-per-use).

Ronda is one of the largest municipalities in Spain without a motorway. The recent landslide on the San Pedro road (A-397), which will be closed for at least four months, before a partial reopening, and six months until it is fully open, has once again highlighted the Serranía's major shortcomings. The key lies in the transformation of the A-357 into a dual carriageway, as well as in the development of the lower Guadalhorce, which has now become the metropolitan area of Greater Malaga.

Providing a dual carriageway for the 75 kilometres from Casapalma to Ronda (to the modernisation of the A-357 must be added the reform of the A-367) would have an estimated budget of more than 400 million. This figure has been extrapolated from the cost of the sections already in the pipeline. After almost two decades without progress, the regional government plans to put out to tender the transformation into a dual carriageway of a four-kilometre section between Casapalma and Cerralba, with an investment of 52 million euros. The next one, from Cerralba to Zalea, is also under study, which will add another four kilometres at almost the same cost. A third section is also being studied at the entrance to the town of Ronda.

Beyond the coastal train, the current Cercanías (short-distance) lines are in urgent need of renovation. The Costa's C1 already has a project under way for a second track on the Campamento Benítez section, although further extensions are needed to improve frequency.

In turn, the C2 (Guadalhorce) has proved to be the backbone of communications in the Malaga area. On the other hand, the service is very deficient, with a single track and not even one departure per hour. Furthermore, a branch line has to be built to take it to the technology park, which would be the most efficient public transport solution for this large work centre.

In 2003, the cost of doubling the 30 kilometres of the Fuengirola line was estimated at 300 million euros. Given that the extension of the C2 is 38 kilometres, plus all that remains to be doubled on the C1, the investment will exceed 500 million euros.

The airport's historic 2024 record of almost 25 million passengers has set alarm bells ringing. The infrastructure is crying out for expansion. Currently, the maximum capacity is 30 million, which means that there are only five million passengers left to reach it. The current 'Dora' (Documento de Regulación Aeroportuaria), which is the instrument that includes the planned investments, does not contemplate investments for its expansion, although Spain's airport operator Aena has promised to plan this from 2027 onwards.

Alicante can be used as a reference point, before the exact figures for Malaga are known. Alicante's airport, with a maximum capacity of 20 million passengers and current record of 18.4 million, is already in the process of drawing up projects to adapt the terminal area. This phase alone has had a budget of almost 20 million, while the works have been estimated at 600 million. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to think Malaga will need to invest a similar amount for its expansion.

María Zambrano station has started to show the first signs of saturation. The demand for high-speed trains, together with competition from private operators, means that space on the platforms is becoming increasingly sought after. This will be joined at some point in the future by the coastal train. At this point, some experts advocate the direct construction of a second terminal, which should be close to the airport, in the area of Alhaurín de la Torre.

For the moment, there is also the possibility of converting some tracks from conventional Spanish gauge to international UIC and changing the electrification, to allow the arrival of more trains. In order to make an economic assessment, we can use the amount that the ministry of transport is planning to invest in extending the Valladolid Campo Grande station: 250 million euros.

The extension of the Rosaleda stadium has a budget of 271 million. Additional investments, such as a bridge-plaza over the Guadalmedina to improve evacuation, should be added to this. There are also plans to extend the metro to this area. The deadlines are very tight. The work has to be ready for the 2030 World Cup, but Fifa demands that the timetable be brought forward.

Any work has to be compatible with Málaga CF's day-to-day training and matches. Work is already under way to adapt the Ciudad de Málaga stadium with additional stands. Attendance at La Rosaleda, regardless of the team's success rates, is always very high, hence the importance of this project, designed for 45,000 seats. Geotechnical studies are currently under way.

The project for a new hospital has been on the table for decades and is now finally, albeit slowly, taking steps forward. It will cost 686 million euros and the intention is to put the works out to tender this year. The extension of line 2 of the metro, already under construction, will be added to it.

It will have 810 rooms and up to 42 operating theatres, with an almost non-existent ecological footprint. The 40-million-euro car park building will be the start of the project, according to the feasibility plan.

This initiative even had a project and a consortium for its management during the times of minister Magdalena Álvarez in the ministry of public works (2004-2009). But the crisis arrived and the economic adjustments took their toll on this cultural facility - one of mayor Francisco de la Torre's flagship proposals. Malaga, for example, cannot host big operas or large-scale concerts.

The city council already owns the land on the San Andrés esplanade, secured in exchange for compensating the port authority with logistics land in the Tarajal area (Campanillas), with access to the railway lines. The updated cost is 209 million and the works will take about four years. The municipal intention is that the central government will contribute 45 million; the Junta 25 million; the provincial authority 10 million; and the private sector 109 million. But for the moment there is no commitment from the central government, nor from the investment partners.

After the great leap made by the Levante quay and the reconversion of quays 1 and 2 for public use, the second great transformation of the port has started to take shape. The new projects are focused on the western area, near Huelin, where both logistical and public developments are planned. The port authority's business plan (2022-2027) contemplates a public investment of almost 102 million. Of this, the most important item is the creation of the new quay 8, which will be dedicated to logistics activity. Another necessary investment is a new bridge over the Guadalmedina river.

The other three components that will shape the 'new' port of Malaga are private investments, although some are contingent on prior public works. This is the case with the office complex on quay 4, which depends on the prior relocation of the customs headquarters. More than six million euros have been earmarked for this building, which in turn will unlock a business initiative valued at around 60 million euros. In addition to this, there is the marina of San Andrés, in Huelin, led by the same Qatari fund that is promoting the port tower hotel project, with an estimated cost of 54 million. And finally, the Levante hotel, which will involve another 200 million euros invested by Al Alfia and Hesperia.

The regional government has just finished drafting the project for this reservoir to regulate the Guadiaro river. Straddling the border between Cadiz and Malaga, it would supply the Costa del Sol with some 15 million cubic metres a year, once it has been made potable by Arcgisa - the Campo de Gibraltar water company. The budget is 780 million, a little more than half for the dam and the other half for the pipelines. The project is the one chosen by the Junta to the detriment of the discarded enlargement of the La Concepción dam. As it is a work of general state interest, the Andalusian government will propose an agreement to the central government for its execution.

This proposal dates back to the 90s. It was then proposed by the Confederación Hidrográfica del Sur and its state-owned company Acusur to provide some 45 million cubic metres of water - the result of regulating and harnessing the Grande river. Now, only a small part can be done, namely the part that flows on the surface when it flows into the Guadalhorce, thanks to the Aljaima weir. The reservoir would run between Coín and Guaro and would be a definitive support against flooding in the lower section of the Guadalhorce (of which it is a tributary on the right). Its initial budget was 85 million, but it was discarded after political and environmental protests in the area. Now, the Junta has pulled the project out of the drawer again.

The process is slow, but at least progress is being made on the preliminary projects, driven by the users, Axaragua and the farmers, who have formed a central board. The plan is to obtain 12 million cubic metres per year for irrigation and another 12 for urban consumption. Its importance is self-explanatory, given the dry conditions of the area, which has been hardest hit by water shortages in recent years. The budget is around 100 million euros, which will be advanced by Acuamed - a state-owned company - and which the users will have to pay back through a sort of 'mortgage' over a specified period (usually 50 years).

This facility would be a sort of 'twin' to the El Atabal plant, designed to treat brackish and poor-quality water from both reservoirs and underground sources such as wells and aquifers. It is based on an old water treatment plant located next to the small dam of El Tomillar, also known as Pilones. The preliminary concept was commissioned to Estudio 7 and the initial project draft should now be complete. The plant would provide a major boost to the water supply system for municipalities like Alhaurín el Grande, Alhaurín de la Torre, Pizarra, Coín and Cártama, as well as to Malaga’s growing urban area. It is designed with the capacity to enable flow exchanges in all directions across the network.

This will be a modular station equipped with ultrafiltration systems, capable of treating 2,000 litres per second - more than the current consumption of Malaga city. A previous, less ambitious project by Acuamed was shelved. Given the scale and in light of similar operations, such as the expansion of the El Atabal desalination plant, the cost is expected to be no less than 30 million.

For there to be a real water motorway, the obsolete canalisations and pipelines on the coast need to be renewed. Acosol has included them in its investment plan and wants to go hand in hand with the regional government. It would start with the most deteriorated area, Benalmádena. This is a high-capacity system valued at 300 million euros, which would effectively connect the Campo de Gibraltar, the coast, Malaga and the Axarquia. The recently inaugurated Rojas pumping station (Churriana), which is capable of transferring up to 500 litres per second in both directions, would gain value.

Acosol, again in conjunction with the Junta, has included a preliminary project for a second desalination plant for the western Costa, to complement the recently modernised Marbella plant, which has been expanded to produce 20 million cubic metres of water per year. It would compensate for the fiasco of the Mijas-Fuengirola seawater plant, which was awarded to Sacyr, Sadit and Construcciones Vera for almost 62 million euros in 2008. Then came the crisis, the project was discarded and had to be rescinded and compensated. Drawing a parallel with the Axarquia desalination plant, its estimated cost for the new plant would be around 100 million euros.

After many years of delays, work has now begun on the Malaga North wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The work is budgeted at 138 million euros and it will take 18 years to be completed. It has been awarded to the joint venture Sando and Dinotec. It has also been the subject of an agreement with the town councils of Alhaurín de la Torre, Alhaurín el Grande, Malaga, Torremolinos, Pizarra and Cártama.

Through Emasa, Malaga city will manage the plant, although the exact legal fit has not been determined. The project has been resized and its footprint has been reduced by 30%, which has not prevented legal action and protests from the owners of the affected estates in the Vega de Mestanza.