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There is a new change in the weather in Spain. Storm Olivier squall - the fifteenth of great impact of the season - will reach the mainland from today after wreaking havoc in the Canary Islands. This phenomenon will coincide with the start of the Easter departure operation on the roads, so both the religious brotherhoods and those who are packing their bags to go on holiday are keeping an eye on the sky. The million-dollar question is how it will affect the south of the country?
For now, the weather experts warn: "Andalucía will be one of the Spanish regions where Olivier will have the greatest impact. Although it will not rain constantly, irregular showers and storms are expected in this second half of the week", said Samuel Biener, researcher and disseminator of climatology and editor of Meteored.
"Cloudiness will increase and from this Thursday there could be scattered showers in Sierra Nevada, Huelva, Malaga, Cadiz and Seville. On Friday, showers will advance from southwest to northeast, with the presence of suspended dust from the Sahara desert that could cause mud showers. They will be more likely in Córdoba, Jaén and the western provinces, while Granada and Almeria will remain on the sidelines until then. In the Sierra Morena and the Seville regions, the showers will persist until the afternoon", according to this specialised website.
Spain's state meteorological agency (Aemet) agrees. Its forecast for the region for this Thursday points to "very cloudy skies, with rainfall at nightfall in the western third, accompanied by mud deposits. In addition, very strong gusts of wind are expected in Cadiz and on the Almeria coast".
The wind, in fact, will be the other main protagonist of the next few days in Andalucía. At the moment, Aemet has activated warnings in five provinces for wind and coastal phenomena. In Almeria and Cadiz, the state body has raised the warning to amber for gusts of 60 to 75 km/h (force 8) and waves of 3 to 4 metres in height, with a significant maximum height of up to 7 metres.
On Friday, Aemet forecasts "very cloudy skies, with showers accompanied by mud deposits that may occasionally be stormy". And, once again, dust in suspension is not ruled out. From the afternoon onwards, winds will tend to diminish, turning south in the western half. The warnings in force, in fact, will be inactive from 4pm, with the only exception of Almeria, where the yellow warning will be extended all day by wind from the east and northeast of 50 to 60 km/h (force 7) and waves of 3 metres.
Looking ahead to the weekend, the scenario does not improve. Between Friday night and midday Saturday, a new band of precipitation will leave heavy rain and thunderstorms in most of Andalucía, "especially in Malaga, Seville, Cadiz, Cordoba, Granada and Jaen", according to Biener. "In the afternoon, the rains will gradually diminish, although in the evening they will be reactivated in Granada and Almeria. Snow is also expected on the peaks of the Sierra Nevada," he said.
On Palm Sunday, the weather is expected to be "very variable and unstable in the region, with showers and irregular storms that will spread from west to east", according to Meteored. According to their weather models, the most complicated time could be in the central hours of the day, with clouds of evolution. "Uncertainty is high, so many processions will have to decide at the last minute whether to go out or not. The models still show several possible scenarios," he concluded.
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