Study predicts that 82% of Andalucía's population will be concentrated on the coast or in just one river valley by 2040

The Junta de Andalucía has just finalised the draft of its new strategy dealing with the region's demographic challenges ('Estrategia frente al Desafío Demográfico'), which will roll out until 2030 with the involvement of all the regional ministries. The document foresees an exodus from the rural areas to coastal municipalities and the Guadalquivir Valley, which runs from Cordoba - via Seville - to Cadiz on the coast, in the coming years, especially to the large towns and their surrounding, commutable areas.

This is stated in the summary outline of this strategy, coordinated by the regional justice ministry that also handles matters of public administration, to which SUR has had access. The summary estimates that, by 2040, 82% of the Andalusian population will be concentrated in coastal areas and in the Guadalquivir Valley to the detriment of inland areas and the region's mountain ranges.

This diagnosis warns of extreme contrasts between inland rural areas losing population due to ageing and lack of generational replacement in the economic activities that sustain them and the coastal and metropolitan areas of the large conurbations in the Guadalquivir Valley, all of which are experiencing sustained growth.

The study reflects the buoyant growth in Andalucía's population, making it the most populated region in Spain with 8,619,616 inhabitants in 2024, accounting for 17.7% of the national population total. Furthermore, the population of Andalucía broke another record in 2024 by surpassing 8.6 million inhabitants, of which 4.2 million residents are male and almost 4.4m are female.

Since the beginning of the 21st century the regional population has grown by 1.3 million inhabitants, although this increase has not been evenly spread at all, as 80.8% of them live in urban areas with over 10,000 inhabitants and 51% of its population lives in only 30 municipalities of 50k-plus inhabitants. The study also points out that 55% of Andalusian municipalities have lost population over the last 20 years.

This review of the region's demographics has identified up to 90 municipalities at high risk of depopulation and which therefore require priority action to curb this threat, which could become critical.

Granada is the province with the highest number of municipalities at risk of depopulation with 27 places under threat, followed by Almeria with 22, Cordoba with 17 and Jaen with 10. Further behind are Huelva with seven municipalities in which priority action must be taken to halt their population loss, five in Malaga and two in Seville, while top spot is held by the province of Cadiz with no municipality at serious risk.

The Junta's diagnosis shows that the villages at high risk of depopulation in Malaga province are Genalguacil, Pujerra and Jubrique, all three in the Genal valley, together with Cañete la Real in the Ronda mountains and Alfarnate in the Axarquia.

The strategy, which will now be submitted for public digest and consultation, proposes measures against depopulation such as improving public services, fiscal aid and support for families, promoting vocational training, improving the competitiveness of the agri-food sector, as well as boosting digitalisation and mobility and transport infrastructures. If these measures are not given appropriate attention, by 2030 there will be 300 municipalities at risk of depopulation, according to this analysis.