Tourism had a positive effect on the Andalusian economy in the second quarter of the year. / sur

Andalucía is still a leader in business creation although prospects for growth of the economy are now lower than expected

The Economic Observatory has reduced its growth forecast from 4% to 3.8% for this year but expects GDP to rise by 2% next year

Héctor Barbotta
HÉCTOR BARBOTTA Seville

Statistics and economic forecasts for Andalucía produced at the end of this summer are reflecting the continued uncertainty over the global economy. Figures issued by the Economic Observatory of Andalucía (OEA) on Monday for the second quarter of this year show that the forecast for growth in 2022 has been downgraded from 4% to 3.8%, while GDP in the region is expected to increase by 2% in 2023.

The significant increase which is expected in GDP can be attributed to the disappearance of certain factors which limited it during the first quarter of this year such as the hauliers’ strike and restrictions on some economic activities, and the fact that tourism in the region now seems to have recovered from the pandemic. It is possible that labour reform may also have had a moderately positive effect.

Among the negative factors, the report mentions the upwardly spiralling prices, especially since March, which affect decisions regarding consumption, investment and production, and a reduction in people's real income.

It also takes into account that tourism was the principal positive factor for the Andalusian economy in spring and summer, but the peak season is now over and that will have an effect.

New business creation

Other figures issued on Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), show that in July Andalucía was one of the three top regions of Spain in terms of new businesses created (1,200) along with Madrid (1,665) and Catalonia (1,391), although the figure was 9.1% lower than in the same month last year.

Nevertheless, this downward trend was reversed in August: the number of companies registered with the Social Security system grew by 1.4% in Andalucía that month compared with August 2021, and was three-tenths of a percentage points above the national average. Comparing that with the figure for July, the number of companies had dropped by 1.2%, which was 0.1% below the national average.

And in terms of numbers of people registered as being in work, the year-on-year figure for Andalucía in August 2022 was up by 5.2%. Every province in the region recorded an increase in the number of workers, although Malaga was top of the list in relative and absolute terms, having grown by 8.2% (37,003 more).