Malaga province faces second warmest summer on record and meteorologists warn of storms in September

The month of June confirms the climate shift in Malaga: the third warmest on record at the airport since 1942 and the second warmest province-wide on record since 1991.

The figures are well above the historical average. This data comes from the Aemet state meteorological agency, which, with due caution, is forecasting a much stormier September than usual.

In addition, as SUR reported last week, Malaga is experiencing a marine heatwave. According to experts, high water temperatures act as 'fuel' for severe storms and violent waterspouts.

Meteorologist Jesús Riesco has analysed the weather patterns for June 2026 for SUR. The data of the Malaga Airport weather station shows that June was an extremely hot month.

As Riesco said, "June 2026 saw an average maximum temperature of 30.5C, an average minimum temperature of 21.3C and a monthly average of 25.9C".

This average monthly temperature places this year among the highest on record: "This monthly average of 25.9C makes it the third warmest since 1942."

Riesco stated that the only two previous instances with even higher records are very recent. "The two previous warmest years were 2025, with an average of 26.2C, and 2022, with 26.1C."

Heat has spread widely throughout the whole province. "As far as the province of Malaga is concerned, it was the second warmest month on record, with an average temperature of 24.8C, which is 2.7C above the average for the 1991-2020 reference period," Riesco explained.

Riesco described the period as "extremely hot", noting that, at provincial level, this June has been "surpassed only by 2025, when the average was 25.4C".

The season is shaping up to be meteorologically intense in Malaga. According to the expert's forecasts, the province is set to experience unusually high temperatures that could place this summer among the hottest ever recorded in the province, accompanied by a late summer with potentially heavy rainfall.

There is a high degree of certainty regarding temperatures in the coming months. Riesco said that weather forecasts point to heat in the province: "It seems highly likely that the summer in the province of Malaga will rank among the warmest third on record and will probably end up being one of the warmest."

Forecasts point to hardly any rainfall in the province of Malaga in July and August.

However, minor changes in the weather pattern cannot be ruled out as we head into the final stretch of next month: "Perhaps towards the end of August there may be the odd isolated thunderstorm, particularly in some areas in the interior."

The picture takes on a different hue when analysing the full quarter (July, August and September). Current models suggest unusual weather patterns for the end of summer. According to Riesco, "the seasonal forecast suggests that it might be a little rainier this coming quarter from July to September". He also said that it is quite likely there could be more storms than usual in September.

Despite this, Riesco called for caution and moderation when interpreting long-term rainfall maps. He also highlighted the technical limitations of these forecasts compared with temperature forecasts: "This forecast is of average reliability: in other words, it is not as reliable as the seasonal temperature forecast."

Fortunately, these high temperatures stand in stark contrast to the state of the province's water reserves.

Malaga is heading into the high season with its reservoirs at 92 per cent of their storage capacity. They would be even fuller had they not had to release the equivalent of four years' worth of demand after exceeding their fill thresholds during and following the series of storms at the start of the year.

As things stand, the reservoirs contain 557 of the 603 million cubic metres permitted under their filling regulations.

Malaga city, for example, which the Guadalhorce, Limonero and Casasola systems supply, has a guaranteed water supply for practically four or five years, even if not a single drop of rain were to fall for a long time.

The reservoir holding the most water is the Guadalteba, which exceeds 150 million cubic metres, practically the same volume as La Viñuela.

Next is the Guadalhorce, with 123 million cubic metres, followed by the Conde del Guadalhorce and La Concepción reservoirs, with 58 and 48, respectively. The two flood control reservoirs, Limonero and Casasola, hold 15 and eleven million cubic metres, respectively.

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