Malaga province businesses complain of negative first quarter reviews

Businesses in Malaga province shared a negative outlook at the end of the first quarter of 2026. More and more companies report worsening figures.

A drop of almost 6% reflects the balance between positive and negative assessments in the business confidence index in Malaga. This decline is the second steepest among all Andalusian provinces, second only to Jaén, which fell by 6.6%. Across Andalucía as a whole, this index dropped by 3.5%. The only province that improved was Huelva (+1.5%).

What explains this decline in business optimism in Malaga? The last quarter has certainly provided ample material to cloud the economic outlook. The main factor is the war in Iran and its already significant economic impact, such as higher fuel prices and export difficulties.

The Adamuz train crash and the disruption of the high-speed rail connection between Madrid and Malaga may also have contributed to dampening business expectations. The survey does not specify the exact causes of this deterioration in business confidence, so only speculation is possible.

Regardless of the specific factors, the result is that in Malaga, more business owners consider the performance of their business in the first quarter unfavourable (20.4%) than those who consider it favourable (18.4%). These indicators have worsened compared to the previous quarter, when only 10.4% had a negative assessment versus 28.4% who considered it positive. It is striking how the percentage of respondents with a pessimistic view of the situation has doubled.

Business owners are more optimistic about the future: almost 24% have favourable expectations, compared to 15% who share negative views. These forecasts, however, have worsened compared to the previous quarter, when the percentages were 25.5% and 10.6%, respectively.

The review of the first quarter of 2026 was positive in construction, remained stable in industry and was negative in the remaining sectors. The outlook for the second quarter is positive in all sectors except retail, with construction at the top.

Regarding employment levels, the current situation is negative, while expectations for the future are positive in Andalucía (-3.9% and 3%, respectively). The employment level in the first quarter worsened compared to the previous quarter (-2.0%).

Regarding price trends, a greater number of establishments raised their prices (29.1%) than lowered them (5.1%) in the first quarter of 2026. The upward price trend is expected to continue into the second quarter of 2026.

Regarding exports, 32.2% of establishments exported in the first quarter of 2026 and 32.6% expect to do so in the coming quarter. The net change between establishments that reported an increase in exports (9.7%) and a decrease (17.6%) is -7.9% in the first quarter of 2026. The outlook for the second quarter of 2026 shows a net change of -3.4%.