Which parts of Malaga city could suffer the most damage during an earthquake?

The answer is in a document civil protection drew up in 2019: the earthquake plan.

The provinces of Malaga and Granada, as well as the Levante area, constitute the part of mainland Spain most prone to earthquakes.

The report provides a fairly accurate analysis of the areas in Malaga city where an earthquake might be felt most strongly and of the vulnerability of buildings.

It also goes into detail regarding the damage and casualties that an earthquake of magnitude between 7 and 8.5 could cause.

This study uses a return period of almost 1,000 years and takes into account events recorded since the 16th century. According to estimates, an earthquake of that magnitude would cause severe damage to 1,365 buildings and moderate damage to 2,404.

Furthermore, 19 buildings would be virtually destroyed. However, 40,443 properties in the city would suffer minor damage, while 6,916 would remain unaffected by the earthquake.

What would be the damage caused by an earthquake of magnitude between 7 and 8.5 in Malaga? A total of 701 buildings and 1,479 homes would be rendered uninhabitable; 3,432 people would be left homeless; and 207,576 homes would be damaged, affecting 481,576 residents.

The report also predicts that 418 people would sustain minor injuries and 56 would sustain serious injuries. Such an earthquake could take a death toll of around 14 people.

There is no need to panic, as this is the worst-case scenario over a 1,000-year period.

By district, the city centre and the area of the Guadalhorce riverbed stand out. Due to the age of the buildings in the historic centre, 1,172 could suffer severe damage and 16 could virtually collapse. Similarly, there would also be a high proportion of buildings with moderate and severe damage in the Distrito Este, with 465 and 69 properties, respectively.

The next district, some way behind, would be Ciudad Jardín. According to the report, Teatinos would bear the least damage.

The plan also compiles a list of the most significant earthquakes to have struck Malaga over the last few centuries. The strongest were in 1581 and 1680. There were a dozen in the 19th century and eight in the 20th. The years 2006 and 2008 recorded earthquakes with a magnitude of over 4.

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