Three million Spanish households on regulated gas tariff face additional annual cost of 310 euros from October

The vast majority of households decided to stay on it. Since February 2022, the number of customers has doubled to over three million, according to figures up to the end of 2025. Conversely, the number of customers subject to the free market price has plummeted by nearly 25% over the same period.

The TUR is an official tariff that the government reviews every three months (January, April, July and October). Although it is designed to protect consumers and limit companies' profit margins, its price is directly linked to the cost of gas on international markets.

At the moment, that market is under considerable strain due to the fluctuations caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Although gas prices have eased in recent trading sessions from 80 to 73 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), they are still trading 170% above the levels at the start of 2026 and at three-year highs.

Although there are still a few weeks to go before the heating switches back on again as autumn approaches, these consumers are facing a "perfect storm" that threatens to send their bills soaring.

In the official formula for calculating the TUR for the final part of the year, so-called seasonal gas (the supply purchased to meet peak winter demand) carries significant weight, accounting for almost 47% of the supply cost within the tariff.

The OCU consumers' organisation has already put some figures on the table. According to its estimates for an average household with gas heating (TUR.2 tariff) and an annual use of 9,000 kWh, the pure cost of energy will rise from 4.12 to around 6.95 cents per kWh (an increase of nearly 69%). When fixed costs, taxes and meter rental are added, the final impact on the annual bill would rise from around 600 euros to around 910 euros, representing an additional cost of 310 euros a year.

Behind the surge in the price of this raw material lies a clear geopolitical factor: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Added to this is the fact that, due to the high temperatures for this time of year and the lack of rain and wind, Red Eléctrica is forced to rely on combined-cycle power stations.

So far this September, their share has been close to 20% of generation, on a par with nuclear power and behind solar photovoltaic power at 27.8% and significantly higher than during the coldest months of last winter, when their share stood at 16.1% in January, 12.7% in February and 14.4% in March.

This reliance has pushed the price of electricity under the regulated tariff (PVPC) up to 156 euros/MWh, the highest level since October 2022, having doubled since June.

Tempus Energía points out that we could be facing four different types of winter and none of them will be cheap.

The first scenario involves the Strait of Hormuz being closed, with no possibility for LNG tankers to pass through the strait. If this is compounded by a cold winter, it will affect the storage facilities that "were never filled" and could lead to "the most expensive end of the year since 2010, with the exception of 2021".

In this context, gas prices could rise to 105 euros/MWh and electricity prices would range from 172 to 189 euros/MWh. However, if the winter is mild and windy, as forecasters predict, and given the resilience of the storage facilities, gas prices would fall to between 73 and 78 euros, while electricity prices would remain between 137 and 145 euros/MWh.

In light of this possibility, the CEO of Tempos Energía clarifies that "good weather does not bring prices down; rather, September's prices would persist until the end of the year".

The other variable would be if the Strait of Hormuz were to open. In cold weather, the ships would not arrive in time to meet demand for the final quarter. Gas prices would range between 68 and 75 euros/MWh, while electricity prices would range between 129 and 140 euros.

This is almost double that of last winter and, as Aceituno points out, "opening the Strait of Hormuz in cold weather is the same as keeping it closed in hot weather". The bill will not ease even with a mild winter and the Strait of Hormuz open.

Under the most favourable conditions, gas prices would fall to 51-58 euros and electricity prices would range between 101 and 112 euros.

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