No surprises

Take no notice of exit polls: that was one key takeaway from the election in Castilla y León on Sunday, of which one aspect was entirely predictable. Most polls forecast that the PSOE would perform as badly, if not worse, than it has in the two most recent regional elections, in Extremadura last December and Aragón in February; instead, it no doubt benefited from Pedro Sánchez's strong stance on Iran to place second with two extra seats.

If last Sunday's vote is seen as a test of the popularity of Spain's opposition to Donald Trump, it came out as one would have expected. Spaniards are overwhelmingly against the war in Iran and anti-Trump (in a bar this week, I overheard the US president described as a "dictator" by a cigarette-wielding local); accordingly, the Socialists, who oppose both, did relatively well, while Vox, which supports both, did badly. The Socialists' performance may also have been boosted by 80,000 first-time voters, who have turned eighteen in the four years since Castilla y León's last election.

The Socialists still lost in Castilla y León - they just didn't lose as badly as everyone thought they would. That's as good as a victory for a party that now controls just five of Spain's 17 autonomous regions, and lost a combined total of 36 seats in the Extremadura and Aragón elections.

Vox's worse-than-expected performance last weekend might have been affected by the hike in gas and fertiliser prices in a region at the heart of "Empty Spain", a consequence of the geographically distant events in Iran which will have kept them at the forefront of voters' minds. It would have required a major upset to dislodge the PP, which has controlled Castilla y León without interruption since 1987 - but the Conservatives won't be able to govern without the support of Vox, which proved itself a fickle coalition partner in the region's last administration.

Ironically, last weekend's election showed how bad things have become for the Socialists. A party can hardly be considered in robust health if it's merely grateful for not being slaughtered at the polls. The Socialists are like a convict who happily begins a life sentence after avoiding execution. Though it's unlikely to disappear into the political black hole that swallowed centrist Ciudadanos a few years ago, the PSOE's lack of regional power indicates a widespread disillusionment that is likely to harm Sánchez at the next general election, due before next August.

Spain's next regional election will be held sometime before the end of June here in Andalucía - a region the PSOE controlled for almost four decades before losing it to the PP in 2022. I have a few ideas for the Socialists' campaign slogan: "It's the Taking Part That Counts"; "We Know Our Place"; "Not Losing is Winning" - you get the picture.