Malaga extends weather warnings to the whole province, as storm Bruna brings more than 40mm of rain in less than 12 hours

Storm Bruna is hitting the province hard, where the network of rain gauges providing real-time data from the Hidrosur system had already recorded a maximum of 42mm in Río Grande at 1pm; closely followed by several others at the Guadalmansa river diversion dam (41mm), whose water flows towards the La Concepción reservoir (which supplies the Costa del Sol). Other notable rainfall gauges up to that time were Casarabonela (39), Tolox (38), Ojén (36) and Guadalmina (32).

Aemet has issued a yellow warning for the whole province (initially, it was only for Ronda) due to the possibility that the accumulated rainfall over 12 hours could reach, or even exceed at times, 60mm.

The regional government has already activated the pre-emergency stage of the flood plan, in view of the possibility of flooding in various parts of the region, although this is most likely in areas of Huelva, Seville and Cadiz provinces.

The severe storm is already bringing significant amounts of rainfall, which will continue throughout this week. However, it will not rain equally across all areas. This type of weather system from the west, accompanied by ábregos winds (which are very humid and mild), tends to bring very heavy downpours to specific parts of the province, while other areas will also experience rain, albeit in smaller quantities.

So, where are the heaviest rainfall totals expected in Malaga? Jesús Riesco, director of the Aemet centre in Malaga, has particularly highlighted the Serranía area and the westernmost coast, compared with the eastern half, where there will be considerably less rainfall. Weather models also predict significant rainfall (albeit less than in the first case) in the Axarquía mountains.

There is much discussion in meteorological circles about the possibility of a subtropical cyclone reaching mainland Spain, which could have disastrous consequences in terms of flooding.

For the time being, Aemet is taking a cautious approach and is limiting itself to reporting that, "between Tuesday and Wednesday, a small low-pressure system of subtropical origin is expected to pass through, which could bring heavy rainfall and very strong winds".

Although Wednesday is expected to be the most challenging day due to the intensity of the downpours and gusts of wind, Aemet has not yet issued any warnings for that day in Malaga province, although it has already done so in other provinces in the centre and north of the mainland.

Total rainfall may occasionally exceed 100mm during the period (Monday to Friday), particularly in the upper Guadalhorce and Guadalteba valleys, where the highest rainfall totals are currently being recorded; as well as in the Serranía de Ronda, the westernmost part of the Costa del Sol (between Marbella, Estepona and Manilva) and in the higher-altitude areas of the Axarquía area.

"It's going to rain everywhere, but in those areas the rainfall will be much heavier than elsewhere," Riesco says. This is due to the effect of Malaga's terrain on westerly and southwesterly airflows such as these.

Storm Bruna is likely to move away from Malaga province by the weekend of 14 and 15 November. Riesco, however, believes that "a slight shift" could cause it to move more quickly and end sooner. In principle, it will remain in these latitudes at least until Thursday.

"In principle, the rainfall will not be very heavy, except in isolated cases at specific times and in specific places", but it will not be torrential, as is the case with cold fronts. However, they will be of moderate intensity and persistent, meaning they will bring "significant amounts of rain, particularly in the Serranía de Ronda and on the western coast".

Temperatures, however, will remain higher than normal for this time of year, which Riesco attributes to the influence of the 'ábregos' winds.

"They will remain above normal levels, as they are now, throughout the week and may drop by the weekend when the storm clears, although it won't be a drastic drop."

In Malaga city, maximum temperatures will be around 22-23C, with minimum temperatures of 15-17C.

Explore the main Malaga province regional section